News Release 07-184
New Results Presented at Conference: Climate Change, Weather and Ecosystems; Urban Air Quality; Earth Observing Systems; Seafloor Drilling
National Science Foundation research featured at American Geophysical Union fall meeting, December 10-14, 2007
December 7, 2007
This material is available primarily for archival purposes. Telephone numbers or other contact information may be out of date; please see current contact information at media contacts.
The National Science Foundation (NSF) supports scientific studies in the geosciences, biological sciences and other fields highlighted at the fall meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU) in San Francisco, Dec. 10-14, 2007.
Below are AGU town hall meetings, press conferences and scientific talks and posters that feature NSF-funded research.
TOWN HALL MEETINGS
Tuesday, 11 December | |
1730h | Integrated Ocean Drilling Program: Opportunities and Challenges Parc 55 Hotel, 55 Cyril Magnin Street |
Thursday, 13 December | |
1900h | EarthScope: Planning, Products and the Public Moscone West, Room 3003 |
1930h | Geomorphology and Land-Use Dynamics at NSF Moscone West, Room 3002 |
1930h | GEO Vision: Updating GEO 2000, a Long-Range Plan for NSF Geosciences Moscone West, Room 3001 |
1930h | Ocean Observatories Initiative: Advanced Planning and Opportunities Moscone West, Room 3007 |
1930h | Group on Earth Observations (GEO): Outcomes from the 2007 GEO Ministerial Summit and USGEO Initiatives |
PRESS CONFERENCES
All press conferences take place in the Press Conference Room (2010 Moscone West).
Monday, 10 December | |
1000h | Climate impacts on wildfire intensity Where, how and why do wildfires burn severely? Fire, climate and vegetation dynamics are linked in forest and rangeland ecosystems. Drought-stressed vegetation results in more dead fuels and lower fuel moistures that can result in more intense fires. Drought-stressed vegetation is also more vulnerable to attack and more likely to die from bark beetles and other forest insect pests, which in turn creates yet more dry fuel for severe wildfires. The abundance, type and distribution of fuel for fires is changing rapidly. Participants: Related Sessions: B11D/B13E/B14C |
1300h | Urban air quality Advances in real-time and near real-time air pollutant measurement technology and improved air quality models are allowing scientists to better understand the interplay between pollutant emission sources and atmospheric processes that lead to serious air pollution, and to design more effective air quality management practices. Special sessions on urban air quality highlight innovative field measurement programs in Beijing, Mexico City and Houston. These programs have yielded important insights into the impacts of both primary (directly emitted) pollutant sources and atmospheric chemistry processes that produce secondary pollutants. Participants: Session: Session A11D |
Tuesday, 11 December | |
1300h | Snowpack decline signals need to act The hydrology of the western U.S. has been changing over the last 50 years. Research presented in this session attributes these hydrological changes to climate alterations caused by greenhouse gases. Several computer models have simulated the changes remarkably well, scientists say. These same models predict a future crisis in water supply, agriculture and the environment due to greenhouse gases--impacts which it may be too late to avoid. Participants: Session: GC24A |
1500h | High-elevation climate change and lower elevation impacts New data from Glacier National Park, Montana, show that model predictions from as recently as the 1990s proved overly conservative. This includes glacial retreat rates and cascading effects on high-elevation ecological systems, including critical spawning areas for threatened bull trout. In Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, interactions between recent temperature trends, increases in atmospheric nitrogen deposition and precipitation portend significant regime shifts in alpine ecosystems. Desert dust storms in the southwestern U.S affect the duration of snowpack in the Rockies. Historical analyses of the effects of dust on snowpack show effects starting in the late 1800s, coinciding with changes in land use in the southwest, increasing dust amounts by a factor of five compared to the last 5,000 years. These effects increased dramatically over the course of the 20th and early 21st centuries. Participants: Sessions: GC31C/GC32A/GC33B/GC41A |
Wednesday, 12 December | |
1300h | Seafloor drilling reveals mechanics of earthquakes, tsunamis Chikyu, the world's largest research drilling vessel, in operation for the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program for the first time, has completed the initial 8-week leg of the Nankai Trough Seismogenic Zone Experiment (NanTroSEIZE). This research program, to continue until 2012, has begun drilling into an underwater earthquake zone off the southwest coast of Japan to study fault mechanics. Preliminary results include data gathered from six sites where scientists will eventually build ocean-bottom observatories. Geophysical logs and downhole measurements were made to determine the properties of the rocks surrounding each borehole. Participants: Sessions: T51E/T52A/T53A |
Thursday, 13 December | |
0900h | Climate tipping points: Are we there yet? Abrupt changes in climate are an established phenomenon in Earth's history. There is growing concern, however, that our planet may be at a "tipping point" of dramatic climate change due to human influences. This briefing will present the latest results on climate "tipping points," as well as potential impacts on three key regions of the globe. Hansen discusses the "unrealized" global warming of Earth's climate system and the resulting need for urgent action to cut emissions beyond carbon dioxide. Alley presents the possibility that the sustained warming of a few decades could produce major ice sheet losses that would last centuries. Webster reports on societal tipping points along three heavily populated Asian river basins. Comiso states that with this year's large Arctic sea ice decline, the tipping point may be here. Participants: Session: GC44A |
CONFERENCE TALKS AND POSTERS
Tuesday, December 11 | |
0800h | First Analyses of the Snowpack and Climate Change in the Upper Colorado River Basin This poster presentation focuses on preliminary analyses of snowpack in the Rocky Mountains and how climate change will affect the availability of fresh water for people who depend upon the Colorado River. The analyses are conducted through a new research initiative, the North American Regional Climate Change Program (NARCCAP), which uses high-resolution computer models to study climate change in vulnerable areas of North America. The goal of NARCCAP is to zoom in on specific regions, thereby helping society prepare for the impacts of a changing climate. Nadine Salzmann, National Center for Atmospheric Research |
1645h | Winter Storm Track Analyses: The Influence of Current and Future Climate Computer model analyses using the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) 3 indicate that strong winter storms are likely to follow different tracks this century because of climate change. If society continues a business approach to emitting greenhouse gases, preliminary research findings show that the U.S. west coast is likely to see an increase in powerful winter storms, whereas Alaska will see a decrease. Atlantic storms are likely to shift north, with an increase in storm frequency from the Great Lakes to Quebec and a decrease along the U.S. East Coast. Haiyan Teng, National Center for Atmospheric Research, |
1745h | The Role of the Nitrogen Cycle in the Climate System Scientists are stepping up research into the role of nitrogen in the climate system, and are beginning to incorporate the nitrogen cycle in computer models. This talk will preview new directions in nitrogen research. Nitrogen has a direct impact on climate change because it both affects the ability of plants to absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and influences atmospheric methane concentrations. Nitrogen also has implications for air quality because nitric oxide is a necessary precursor to ozone formation. Elisabeth Holland, National Center for Atmospheric Research |
Wednesday, December 12 | |
1120h | Modeling Permafrost and Permafrost-related Climate Change Feedbacks An important question for climate scientists is the likely impact of climate change on permafrost, the perpetually frozen soil in higher latitudes. Changes to permafrost can have significant impacts on Arctic ecology, hydrology and biogeochemical cycling. New computer modeling shows that a more detailed representation of soil properties affects predictions of near-surface permafrost degradation. Revised 21st Century soil temperature projections indicate substantial and widespread warming, raising concerns that previously locked-up soil carbon could be released as carbon dioxide or methane, thus exacerbating global warming. David Lawrence, National Center for Atmospheric Research |
1150h | Acceleration of the Air Circulation Between Tropics and High Latitudes New computer modeling demonstrates that the buildup in greenhouse gases is accelerating the movement of air in the stratosphere through a change in stratospheric "Brewer-Dobson" circulation, which moves air between the tropics and the high latitudes. The research shows the extent to which climate change is affecting the entire Earth system. Natalia Calvo, National Center for Atmospheric Research |
Thursday, December 13 | |
1340h | Seeing the Aurora Borealis with New "Eyes": Advances in High-Latitude Incoherent Scatter Radar Josh Semeter, Boston University |
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NSF's Ocean Observatories Initiative, a network of seafloor observatories, is a meeting highlight.
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NSF's National Ecological Observatory Network will be featured at a town hall meeting at AGU.
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Geologists affiliated with the EarthScope Program, funded by NSF, will present updates.
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Air pollution over cities like Mexico City yields insights into global atmospheric chemistry.
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The NSF-funded International Ocean Drilling Program drillship soon will be underway.
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Arctic sea ice is threatened by worldwide warming temperatures.
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Media Contacts
Cheryl Dybas, NSF, (703) 292-7734, email: cdybas@nsf.gov
Related Websites
Ocean Observatories Initiative: http://www.joiscience.org/ocean_observing
National Ecological Observatory Network: http://www.neoninc.org
International Ocean Drilling Program: http://www.iodp.org
EarthScope Program: http://www.earthscope.org
U.S. Group on Earth Observations: http://usgeo.gov
MILAGRO Project: Mexico City's Urban Air Quality: http://www.eol.ucar.edu/projects/milagro/
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