Award Abstract # 1638301
CRISP Type 2: Integrative Decision Making Framework to Enhance the Resiliency of Interdependent Critical Infrastructures

NSF Org: BCS
Division of Behavioral and Cognitive Sciences
Recipient: UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH FLORIDA
Initial Amendment Date: August 2, 2016
Latest Amendment Date: November 4, 2020
Award Number: 1638301
Award Instrument: Standard Grant
Program Manager: Robert O'Connor
roconnor@nsf.gov
 (703)292-7263
BCS
 Division of Behavioral and Cognitive Sciences
SBE
 Directorate for Social, Behavioral and Economic Sciences
Start Date: September 1, 2016
End Date: August 31, 2022 (Estimated)
Total Intended Award Amount: $1,963,542.00
Total Awarded Amount to Date: $1,963,542.00
Funds Obligated to Date: FY 2016 = $1,963,542.00
History of Investigator:
  • Qiong Zhang (Principal Investigator)
    qiongzhang@usf.edu
  • Xinming Ou (Co-Principal Investigator)
  • Eric Wells (Co-Principal Investigator)
  • Qing Lu (Co-Principal Investigator)
  • Shima Mohebbi (Co-Principal Investigator)
Recipient Sponsored Research Office: University of South Florida
4202 E FOWLER AVE
TAMPA
FL  US  33620-5800
(813)974-2897
Sponsor Congressional District: 15
Primary Place of Performance: University of South Florida
4202 East Fowler Avenue
Tampa
FL  US  33620-9951
Primary Place of Performance
Congressional District:
15
Unique Entity Identifier (UEI): NKAZLXLL7Z91
Parent UEI:
NSF Program(s): CRISP - Critical Resilient Int
Primary Program Source: 01001617DB NSF RESEARCH & RELATED ACTIVIT
Program Reference Code(s): 008Z, 029E, 036E, 039E, 9102
Program Element Code(s): 027Y00
Award Agency Code: 4900
Fund Agency Code: 4900
Assistance Listing Number(s): 47.075

ABSTRACT

The reliable functioning of infrastructures is critical to national security and fundamental to social, economic, and environmental well-being. This CRISP project will advance our understanding of the effects of different types of interdependencies on the resiliency of critical infrastructures (CIs), targeting water, transportation and cyber infrastructures. Instead of focusing on different infrastructures, this project focuses on different interdependencies including physical-based (primarily co-location), virtual-based (primarily information), and socioeconomic-based (primarily resource management). The project will enhance the resiliency of interdependent critical infrastructures and transform infrastructure management by the integrative decision framework developed for the evaluation of design, operational and organizational strategies. The integrated research and education provides a fun self-learning environment and wide dissemination of project findings and products through the interactive website hosting the competition-based learning game.

The objectives of this project are to: 1) develop and validate models considering physical-based and virtual-based interdependencies and examine the infrastructure resiliency associated with design strategies; 2) develop an integrated mathematical model considering socioeconomic-based interdependencies and examine the infrastructure operational strategies; 3) understand influential factors and organizational strategies in managing critical infrastructures; 4) develop a multi-method adaptive simulator for high-level stakeholders to identify/quantify the failure impacts and potential strategies for addressing failures; and 5) develop a Resilient Infrastructures Learning Game (RILG) for public participation and dissemination to build awareness, knowledge, and capacity for recognizing interdependencies among critical infrastructures. The projected framework uses a hybrid system dynamics and agent-based modeling approach to integrate outcomes from different methods including: multi-layer network modeling (focus: design aspects of CIs); infrastructure prognostic and health management taking into account the physical, virtual, and socioeconomic-based interdependencies among infrastructures and considering both continuous degradation of performance measures and the discrete occurrence of critical events (focus: operational aspects of CIs); and consensus analysis and Monte Carlo simulation of decision making outcomes (focus: organizational aspects of CIs). The alternative infrastructure design, operational and organizational strategies will draw from the models and organizational resiliency studies using surveys and interviews. A simulation game platform will be developed to allow different teams of students and practitioners to evaluate their developed strategies by weighing associated transaction costs.

PUBLICATIONS PRODUCED AS A RESULT OF THIS RESEARCH

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(Showing: 1 - 10 of 17)
AbdelMottaleb, N. and Ghasemi Saghand, P. and Charkhgard, H. and Zhang, Q. "An Exact Multiobjective Optimization Approach for Evaluating Water Distribution Infrastructure Criticality and Geospatial Interdependence" Water Resources Research , v.55 , 2019 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018WR024063 Citation Details
Abdel-Mottaleb, Noha and Walski, Tom "Evaluating Segment and Valve Importance and Vulnerability" Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management , v.147 , 2021 https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0001366 Citation Details
Abdel-Mottaleb, Noha and Zhang, Qiong "Quantifying Hierarchical Indicators of Water Distribution Network Structure and Identifying Their Relationships with Surrogate Indicators of Hydraulic Performance" Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management , v.147 , 2021 https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0001345 Citation Details
Abdel-Mottaleb, Noha and Zhang, Qiong "Water DistributionTransportation Interface Connectivity Responding to Urban Geospatial Morphology" Journal of Infrastructure Systems , v.26 , 2020 https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)IS.1943-555X.0000563 Citation Details
Aslani, Babak and Mohebbi, Shima "Data on predictive resilience of interdependent water and transportation infrastructures: A sociotechnical approach" Data in Brief , v.39 , 2021 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dib.2021.107512 Citation Details
Aslani, Babak and Mohebbi, Shima and Axthelm, Hana "Predictive analytics for water main breaks using spatiotemporal data" Urban Water Journal , v.18 , 2021 https://doi.org/10.1080/1573062X.2021.1893363 Citation Details
Chen, Suiyao and Lu, Lu and Li, Mingyang "Multi-state reliability demonstration tests" Quality Engineering , v.29 , 2017 10.1080/08982112.2017.1314493 Citation Details
Li, Mingyang and Meng, Hongdao and Zhang, Qingpeng "A nonparametric Bayesian modeling approach for heterogeneous lifetime data with covariates" Reliability Engineering & System Safety , v.167 , 2017 10.1016/j.ress.2017.05.029 Citation Details
Mohebbi, Shima and Barnett, Katherine and Aslani, Babak "Decentralized resource allocation for interdependent infrastructures resilience: a cooperative game approach" International Transactions in Operational Research , v.28 , 2021 https://doi.org/10.1111/itor.12978 Citation Details
Mohebbi, Shima and Zhang, Qiong and Christian Wells, E. and Zhao, Tingting and Nguyen, Hung and Li, Mingyang and Abdel-Mottaleb, Noha and Uddin, Shihab and Lu, Qing and Wakhungu, Mathews and Wu, Zhiqiang and Zhang, Yu and Tuladhar, Anwesh and Ou, Xinming "Cyber-Physical-Social Interdependencies and Organizational Resilience: A Review of Water, Transportation, and Cyber Infrastructure Systems and Processes" Sustainable Cities and Society , 2020 10.1016/j.scs.2020.102327 Citation Details
Nguyen, Hung and Abdel-Mottaleb, Noha and Uddin, Shihab and Zhang, Qiong and Lu, Qing and Zhang, He and Li, Mingyang "Joint maintenance planning of deteriorating co-located road and water infrastructures with interdependencies" Reliability Engineering & System Safety , v.226 , 2022 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2022.108678 Citation Details
(Showing: 1 - 10 of 17)

PROJECT OUTCOMES REPORT

Disclaimer

This Project Outcomes Report for the General Public is displayed verbatim as submitted by the Principal Investigator (PI) for this award. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this Report are those of the PI and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation; NSF has not approved or endorsed its content.

The reliable functioning of infrastructures is critical to national security and fundamental to social, economic, and environmental well-being. Cascading failures due to the interdependencies among different critical infrastructures (CIs) have been observed in many events (e.g., Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria in 2017). While different modeling approaches have been used to capture different infrastructures or different aspects of interdependent CIs, a strategic framework is needed to integrate different modeling approaches based on their unique capabilities. It is also critical to validate modeling approaches in a uniform framework and disseminate the framework to the stakeholders in an easy and understandable way. This research aimed at developing an integrative decision making framework with consideration of physical-based, virtual-based, and socioeconomic-based interdependencies between water, transportation and cyber infrastructures that help urban planners, infrastructure managers, and policy makers for evaluating strategies to enhance the resiliency of interdependent critical infrastructures. To achieve the project goal, our research team developed various models including a finite element model to analyze the responses of buried water pipes to vehicle loads, multi-layer network models to investigate the stress propagation within and across modeled infrastructures, and simulation and optimization models to identify critical elements in modeled infrastructures and effective restoration strategies during and post-failures/disaster. The model results were validated using historical data, field data and information provided by the stakeholders. In addition, the insights on organizational resilience of CIs were gained through stakeholder interviews, a comprehensive online survey, and a social vulnerability analysis. Most importantly, the outcome from the developed models and the organizational resilience study were integrated in various ways including a joint maintenance decision-making framework to evaluate and optimize co-located water and transportation infrastructure maintenance policies, a resilience assessment framework to identify the vulnerable areas prone to cascading failures, a coalitional game theory approach to address decentralized resource allocation for interdependent water distribution and road networks, and a hybrid system dynamics and agent-based modeling approach to quantify aggregated resilience indicator and explore potential communication, financial, and learning strategies to enhance the resilience and adaptive capacity of the CIs and their relevant organizations. Through our studies, we learned that 1) the impact of heavy vehicles on water pipes can be ignored and the interdependency between water distribution network and road is more unidirectional from water infrastructure to road, 2) the influence of the interdependency between water and road infrastructures becomes more significant as the magnitude of water infrastructure failure increases beyond a threshold, 3) low-income areas and communities of color in Tampa had low resilience capacity (high levels of social and environmental vulnerabilities, hydraulic vulnerability, and infrastructure interdependency), 4) infrastructure interdependency and the consequences of cascading failures and socioeconomic factors should be taken into account in resilience assessment for a comprehensive and equitable resilience planning, 5) the resilience of water distribution infrastructure can be improved through gradual pipe diameter change along flow paths and higher loop nestedness, 6) a higher investment in road infrastructure could help reduce unmet demand through more restoration options, 7) decentralized, cooperative decision-making is an effective approach to find the resource allocation solutions for interdependent CIs, 8) the proposed joint maintenance planning strategy for interdependent CIs is more cost-saving compared with several existing benchmark strategies, and 9) the strategies focusing on proactive maintenance and effective communication (intra- and inter-departments) improve the resilience of interdependent CIs. Our research team collaborated with the City of Tampa Water Department, City of Tampa Transportation Management Center, City of Tampa Stormwater Services, Department of Technology and Innovation, City of Tampa Wastewater Department to contextualize our studies, obtain the input and feedback, and communicate the findings. The project fully or partially supported two (2) female postdocs, fifteen (15) doctoral students, and three (3) master’s students. Our research team published four (4) doctoral dissertations, one (1) MS thesis, seventeen (17) peer reviewed journal articles, and one (1) technical report. Five (5) journal articles are currently under review and five (5) are in preparation. In addition, the findings from the study were presented at stakeholder meetings, local events, and forty-five (45) local, national and international conferences.


Last Modified: 09/15/2022
Modified by: Qiong Zhang

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