Title : NSF 92-97 - Directorate for Geosciences Long Range Plan FY 1994-98 Type : Report NSF Org: GEO Date : August 15, 1992 File : nsf9297 Executive Summary The Directorate for Geosciences (GEO) supports research, education, and human resource development in the geoscience disciplines. Through these activities, GEO advances scientific knowledge of Earth's environment, including its non-living and living resources such as water, energy, minerals, and fisheries, and the ability to predict natural phenomena of economic interest, such as weather, climate and earthquakes. As a result, GEO contributes to the Nation's need to understand, predict, and respond to environmental events and changes, and to use Earth's resources wisely. To accomplish their research objectives, the geosciences require a variety of instruments and facilities, including major facilities such as research aircraft and vessels, global arrays of seismometers, and supercomputers, as well as a broad base of scientific talent. The GEO Long Range Plan for FY 1994-1998 recognizes the essential connections among research -- both focused and core disciplinary activities; facilities and instrumentation; and education and human resources development, and the need to emphasize all three to ensure a healthy, productive scientific enterprise. In this Long Range Plan, GEO strives to maintain a balance across these activities and between individual investigator research and large, coordinated projects. Research. The principal research goal of GEO is to advance the state of knowledge of Earth, including its atmosphere, continents, oceans, ice, and interior, and the processes that modify them and link them together. GEO's environmental research priorities for FY 1994-1998 are to continue development and implementation of Global Change programs; build environmental research programs in Hydrological Sciences, Weather Research, and Coastal Ocean Processes; and contribute to the broad-based NSF-wide activity in Multidisciplinary Research on the Environment. Disciplinary research programs, often referred to as the core programs, are essential for gaining increased understanding of phenomena in the geosciences. Basic research funded through the disciplinary programs provides the essential foundation for focused efforts such as Global Change, and is necessary to ensure the intellectual basis for addressing the environmental problems of tomorrow. During the next five years, GEO will continue to strengthen disciplinary research programs in the atmospheric, geospace, solid earth, and ocean sciences, including those in the polar regions. Facilities and Instrumentation. The nature of research activities in the geosciences dictates the need for a wide variety of facilities and major capital investments. Acquisition of major capital equipment is required to meet the objectives of GEO's 1994-1998 environmental research priorities and the core disciplinary programs. To address this critical problem, GEO plans to establish a phased Facilities and Instrumentation Recapitalization Program. The highest priorities for FY 1993-1998 are seismic facilities, replacement aircraft and research vessels, and increased supercomputing capabilities. Education and Human Resources. GEO recognizes that to conduct disciplinary research and interdisciplinary global and regional science programs, it must expand its efforts to ensure that new researchers enter the geosciences. This requires increased emphasis on education of undergraduates, graduate students, and postdoctoral professionals, and support for new principal investigators. Participation of underrepresented groups, particularly minorities, women and persons with disabilities, is of special concern. GEO Divisions are working to recruit, educate and promote professional careers for persons in these groups. During FY 1994-1998, GEO will emphasize increasing support for students and post-doctoral professionals; minority, women and cross-directorate programs; young investigators; and undergraduate curriculum development. * * * In its long range planning, GEO incorporates the needs and opportunities of the geosciences community and the mission of NSF. GEO plays a lead role in coordinating and stimulating the formation of new research programs, works closely with its discipline-based communities, and responds to their strategic planning. The FY 1994-1998 GEO Long Range Plan is a product of this consultative approach. The ultimate purpose is to improve our understanding of Earth processes and to lay the scientific groundwork for others to use in making decisions on important societal issues. I. Introduction 1 GEO Long Range Planning 1 Partnerships 3 Research Overview 4 Facilities and Instrumentation Overview 5 Education and Human Resources Development Overview 6 II. Goals and Priorities 7 Mission and Strategic Goals 7 Programmatic Emphases 7 III. Environmental Research Emphases 10 Global Change Programs 11 Hydrological Sciences 22 U.S. Weather Research Program 23 Coastal Ocean Processes 24 Multidisciplinary Research on the Environment 24 IV. Disciplinary Programs 29 Atmospheric Sciences 30 Earth Sciences 33 Ocean Sciences 35 Polar Programs 39 V. Capital Facilities and Instrumentation 44 Facilities and Instrumentation Recapitalization Program 45 Other Facilities 49 VI. Education and Human Resources 52 Undergraduates 53 Graduate Students 54 Postdoctoral Fellowships 55 Presidential Faculty Fellows (PFF) and NSF Young Investigators (NYI) 56 Career Advancement Awards and Research Planning Grants for Women 56 Pre-College 57 Reports Supporting the Long Range Plan 58 Acronyms 64 I. Introduction The primary roles of the National Science Foundation (NSF) are to support the Nation's academic-based research in science and engineering, to enhance the quality of education, and to promote the development of human resources. The Directorate for Geosciences (GEO) supports research, education, and human resource development in the geoscience disciplines. Through these activities, GEO advances scientific knowledge of Earth's environment, including its resources such as water, energy and minerals, and the ability to predict natural phenomena of societal and economic interest, such as weather, climate and earthquakes. As a result, GEO contributes to the Nation's need to understand, predict, and respond to environmental events and changes, and to use Earth's resources wisely. By supporting scientists and the training of their students, GEO provides a broad base of scientific and technical skills needed to address national environmental, industrial, and resource concerns, and to respond to emerging national needs and sudden environmental crises. To accomplish their research objectives, the geosciences require scientific talent as well as a variety of instruments and facilities, including major facilities such as research aircraft and vessels, global arrays of seismometers, and supercomputers,. The GEO Long Range Plan recognizes the essential connections among research -- both focused and core disciplinary activities; facilities and instrumentation; and education and human resources development, and the need to emphasize all three to ensure a healthy, productive scientific enterprise. GEO's strategy is to cultivate and integrate these program components. GEO Long Range Planning In its planning, GEO incorporates the needs and opportunities of the geosciences community and the mission of NSF. GEO plays a lead role in coordinating and stimulating the formation of new research programs, works closely with its discipline-based communities, and responds to their strategic planning. The FY 1994-1998 GEO Long Range Plan is a product of this consultative approach. The ultimate purpose is to improve our understanding of Earth processes and to lay the scientific groundwork for others to use in making decisions on important societal issues. A successful strategy adopted by GEO in developing its long range plans has been to identify focused research initiatives, based on recommendations from the science community through the National Academy of Sciences, science planning workshops, GEO advisory committees, NSF science management, and other sources. The Presidential Initiatives (see page 3) established by the Federal Coordinating Council for Science, Engineering, and Technology (FCCSET) are playing a larger role in identifying initiatives and setting priorities. In its planning, GEO recognizes the need to both develop and respond to focused research activities, while strengthening core disciplinary programs and providing necessary major capital equipment and instrumentation. In this Long Range Plan, GEO strives to maintain a balance across these activities and between individual investigator research and large, coordinated projects. The GEO Long Range Plan is updated and published annually. Assessing Long Range Plan Implementation Each year, GEO conducts an internal assessment of the progress made toward implementing the broad goals of its Long Range Plan, in conjunction with the annual NSF planning and budget cycle. This assessment of progress contributes to GEO's long range strategy and priority setting for the next fiscal year. The GEO Long Range Plan is reviewed annually by GEO's four Divisional Advisory Committees. Such reviews are an integral step in the development of the Long Range Plan. They provide an opportunity to evaluate the progress made by GEO in implementing its long range goals and priorities, and to chart future directions. Long Range Planning Environment Major worldwide political and economic changes will affect national and international scientific activities profoundly over the period 1994-1998. These include: increased international interest in addressing global and regional environmental stress; increased economic power of European and Asian nations; and the end of the Cold War and dissolution of the USSR. These changes create enhanced opportunities for international scientific cooperation, especially in the environmental arena where international awareness and consensus for action are high. These shifts in the world's political and economic order also offer serious challenges to U.S. leadership in certain scientific areas. To the extent possible, GEO will take advantage of these trends in its program planning and implementation. The impacts of constrained Federal and State budgets and the need to develop new ways of ensuring the health and vitality of the Nation's scientific enterprise also contribute to the GEO long range planning environment for FY 1994-1998. Partnerships Academic Community GEO provides about 60 percent of the Federal support for basic geosciences research conducted at U.S. universities and thus has a close working relationship with the academic community. Each GEO Division has a Divisional Advisory Committee with representation from academia which identifies research opportunities and priorities and conducts strategic planning every 3-4 years. GEO also seeks advice on research directions and priorities from several Boards and Committees of the National Academy of Sciences. In addition, the academic community participates in the oversight of GEO programs and program management through NSF's Committee of Visitors mechanism. As time and travel funds allow, GEO senior staff and program managers interact with the scientific community by attending professional meetings, workshops and by site visits. Interagency and International Many of GEO's research programs are implemented with other agencies and/or nations. This coordination makes better use of scarce resources and helps clarify common scientific goals. GEO participates in five FCCSET initiatives: Global Change, High Performance Computing and Communication, Mathematics and Science Education, Biotechnology, and Advanced Materials. In Global Change -- the largest initiative for GEO -- several scientific projects are implemented with other agencies and countries. For example, the Global Tropospheric Chemistry Program (GTCP) and the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) are supported by NSF, NASA, and NOAA and numerous international partners; the Joint Global Ocean Flux Studies (JGOFS) Program is supported by NSF, NOAA, NASA, ONR, seven European countries, Japan, and Canada; and the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA) Program is supported by NSF, NOAA, and NASA, and is coordinated with 15 other countries. GEO is also involved in coordinating the U.S. Weather Research Program, water resources, and coastal ocean research through interagency FCCSET committees. GEO coordinates several interagency and international activities outside the FCCSET framework. These activities include construction and operation of the academic research fleet, supported by NSF, Navy and other agencies; operation of the Global Seismic Network, coordinated with seven other countries through an international federation; the Ocean Drilling Program, supported by the U.S. and 19 other countries; and the U.S. Continental Drilling Program, conducted in cooperation with USGS and DOE. GEO plays a key role in interagency coordination of arctic activities through the Interagency Arctic Research Policy Committee (IARPC) and also participates in the International Solar-Terrestrial Energy Program (STEP), a program of the International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU). Industry Industry serves as a source of support and advice to GEO programs and benefits from research supported by GEO. For example, the petroleum and mineral industries have participated in scientific drilling programs by providing geophysical data and samples as well as support for university scientists and students. They also benefit from immediate access to research results. The offshore oil industry benefits from environmental data, new instrumentation, and marine geological and geophysical observations, all provided through GEO support. Computer companies have contributed resources to the National Center for Atmospheric Research and to the University Data System (UNIDATA) weather information program at Purdue University. The IRIS consortium has strong, mutually beneficial connections to manufacturing industries in which it helps industry design seismic instruments, and then purchases them from the manufacturer. The UNAVCO consortium has a similar relationship with industry in the design and purchase of Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers. Another way in which GEO supports interactions between industry and academic scientists is through Science and Technology Centers. For example, the Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms at the University of Oklahoma benefits from equipment and personnel provided by several computer companies, and these personnel benefit from first-hand experience with cutting edge, computationally intensive problems, helping them to anticipate future hardware and software needs. The Center for High Pressure Research at the State University of New York at Stony Brook receives equipment and support for post-docs from industries interested in production of industrial diamonds and other high pressure materials. These industries benefit from up-to-date knowledge about high pressure research, and also from the Center's output of trained materials scientists. GEO also uses various industries as subcontractors, such as for seismic studies, operation of the Ocean Drilling Ship, and logistic support for the U.S. Antarctic Program. Industry representatives serve on Divisional Advisory Committees, as reviewers for research proposals, and as participants in planning workshops. Research Overview Over the past decade, the geosciences have provided increased insight into the functioning of the global Earth system. This scientific knowledge base, together with technological advances, provides an important opportunity for making bold new advances in understanding Earth and its subsystems. The principal research goal of GEO is to advance the state of knowledge about Earth, including its atmosphere, continents, oceans, ice, and interior, and the processes that modify them and link them together. GEO accomplishes this through its four Divisions by supporting basic disciplinary research as well as focused research efforts. Included are studies of: Atmosphere: its general circulation, the chemical and physical basis of climate and its history, and the smaller-scale, shorter-term phenomena that describe weather processes; Geospace: the domain of solar-terrestrial science, covering the study of neutral particles, plasmas, and fields from Earth's middle atmosphere to the Sun; Solid Earth: its structure, composition, and history, to improve understanding of the processes that govern its environment, resources, hazards, and beneficial use; Ocean: the physical, chemical, geological, and biological processes in the world ocean and at its boundaries with the atmosphere, the shoreline, the sea floor, and Earth's crust beneath; and Polar Regions: research in the Arctic and Antarctic that helps to explain regional and worldwide phenomena and assures equitable and prudent use of resources while protecting the environment. GEO seeks to increase understanding of Earth's environment through observation and the acquisition of data; the study of basic physical, chemical, geological, and biological processes influencing the environment; and the development of integrated, predictive models of the Earth system. It is only through the interaction of these efforts to observe, understand, and predict that the goal of full understanding can be achieved. A programmatic description of GEO's research emphases and priorities for FY 1994-1998 is presented in Chapters III and IV. Facilities and Instrumentation Overview The nature of research activities in the geosciences, such as airborne campaigns to study chemical properties of the atmosphere, research cruises to sample ocean properties, global seismic tomography experiments, and the range of research activities undertaken in the polar regions, dictates the need for a wide variety of facilities and major capital investments. By leveraging private sector funds, GEO has been able to handle some of its capital needs, but many remain to be addressed. Maintaining, upgrading and replacing critical multi-user equipment is a high priority for GEO during the period FY 1994-1998, to ensure excellence in research and safety of research operations. Acquisition of major capital equipment over the period FY 1994-1998 is required to meet the objectives of GEO's environmental research priorities -- Global Change, the U.S. Weather Research Program, Coastal Ocean Processes, Hydrological Sciences, and Multidisciplinary Environmental Research -- and the core disciplinary programs. The highest priorities are seismic facilities, replacement aircraft and research vessels, and increased supercomputing capabilities. A description of GEO's plan for meeting the facilities and instrumentation needs of the geosciences disciplines is presented in Chapter V. Education and Human Resources Development Overview Since the mid-1980s, NSF has expanded its educational and human resources programs; this continues to be a high priority in the 1990s. Changing national demographics, economic competition in an increasingly technological world, and the continued empowerment of citizens in a democratic society, all require higher levels of scientific and mathematical literacy. Participation of underrepresented groups, particularly minorities, women and persons with disabilities, is of special concern. GEO Divisions are working to recruit, educate and promote professional careers for persons in these groups. GEO recognizes that to conduct disciplinary research and interdisciplinary global and regional science programs, it must expand its efforts to ensure that new researchers enter the geosciences. This requires increased emphasis on education of undergraduates, graduate students, and postdoctoral professionals, and support for new principal investigators. It also involves supporting the K-12 school system, especially the science education component of integrated curricula. NSF cross-directorate programs that address education and human resources concerns, such as Research Experiences for Undergraduates (REU), Career Advancement Awards and Research Planning Grants for Women, Minority Research Initiation (MRI), and Presidential Faculty Fellows (PFF) and NSF Young Investigators (NYI), will continue to be supported by GEO. A description of GEO's activities and emphases in the areas of education and human resource development is presented in Chapter VI. II. Goals and Priorities Mission and Strategic Goals GEO's mission is to support excellence in research, to develop human resources, and to contribute to societal needs. To accomplish this mission, GEO is guided by the following strategic goals: Promote excellence in scientific research at universities and national centers; Promote excellence in science education and human resources development; Provide the resources and infrastructure needed to address large-scale, long-term problems in the geosciences; Provide the technological tools to advance knowledge of the Earth, such as computers; instruments for seismic, acoustic and photo-optical imaging; and ground-based sensors; Maintain an active presence in the Antarctic and Arctic by conducting high quality research programs carried out without adverse effects on personnel or on the environment; Advance NSF leadership in interagency, international, and interdisciplinary research programs; and Provide a dependable base of scientific knowledge for use in solving national environmental problems. Programmatic Emphases To meet these goals in FY 1994-1998, GEO will focus its support on the following programmatic emphases in research, including environmental initiatives and disciplinary research; facilities and instrumentation; and education and human resources. This Long Range Plan recognizes the essential interconnectedness of these program components and strives to maintain a balance across them. Research: Environmental Research Priorities Continue to develop ongoing programs in Global Change, and implement those being planned; and Build high quality environmental research programs, including Hydrological Sciences, the U.S. Weather Research Program, Coastal Ocean Processes, and Arctic Environmental Research and other multidisciplinary environmental activities. Research: Disciplinary Research Strengthen disciplinary research programs in the atmospheric, geospace, solid earth, and ocean sciences, including those in the polar regions. Facilities and Instrumentation Maintain, upgrade and replace multi-user capital equipment needed by the geosciences research community, such as seismic facilities, research aircraft and vessels, and supercomputers; Provide instrumentation required by the geosciences community; and Maintain, upgrade and replace antarctic stations. Education and Human Resources Increase support for students and post-doctoral professionals; Support minority, women and cross-directorate programs; Support young investigators; and Support undergraduate curriculum development. III. Environmental Research Emphases Unprecedented changes to global and regional environments from human activities such as burning of fossil fuels, releasing chlorofluorocarbons, polluting water resources, and deforestation are recognized worldwide. Decreased concentrations of stratospheric ozone, first recognized over the polar regions, now extend into lower latitudes. Increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are likely to contribute to atmospheric warming. Waste discharges affect the productivity of estuaries and near-shore regions. Continued growth in worldwide population, industrial development, and energy consumption are increasing this global and regional environmental stress. Political leaders worldwide acknowledge the existence of environmental problems and the need to search for solutions. Recognizing that Earth system changes such as drought, volcanism, severe storms, atmospheric and oceanic pollution, and increases in greenhouse gases, have widespread economic and societal impacts, the United States and other countries are continuing to support policy forums and research programs to understand natural and human-induced changes in the Earth system. Relaxation of worldwide political tensions may provide a more hospitable setting for cooperative international programs vital for understanding environmental systems on a global scale. The increasing interest of European and Asian nations in investing in environmental research should also contribute to enhanced cooperative opportunities. Developing sound policies and strategies in response to environmental change requires improved understanding of the geosciences. To address this need, GEO has selected the following environmental research areas, in decreasing priority order, to emphasize in the FY 1994-1998 time frame: Global Change, Hydrological Sciences, U.S. Weather Research Program, Coastal Ocean Processes, and A special emphasis on Multidisciplinary Research, including Arctic Environmental Research, Environmental Geochemistry, Land-Use Geology, Sensitive Coastal Ecosystems, and Integrated Regional Modeling. These areas have been identified as being of high priority by the science community through reports from the National Academy of Sciences, GEO advisory committees, workshops, and other sources, and by NSF science management. Basic research and facilities funded through the disciplinary research programs provide the foundation for these focused efforts; thus, strengthening the disciplinary programs is necessary to ensure the intellectual basis for solving the unexpected environmental problems of tomorrow. Global Change Programs Global Change is the highest priority research area for GEO. In 1987, NSF began a new program called Global Geosciences to support studies of the Earth as a system of interrelated physical, chemical, geological, and biological processes. This broad research activity involved GEO and the Directorate for Biological, Behavioral and Social Sciences. Two years later, NSF designated the Global Geosciences program as its contribution to the focused U.S. Global Change Research Program, an integrated program of Earth system observations, process studies, and modeling introduced as a Presidential initiative in the FY 1990 Budget and coordinated by the Committee on Earth and Environmental Sciences (CEES) of the Federal Coordinating Council for Science, Engineering and Technology (FCCSET). This Program is designed to reduce scientific uncertainty about the global Earth system and to increase the scientific knowledge base for use by decisionmakers. GEO's Global Change program has realized significant growth since its inception. As a percentage of the total GEO budget, the global change component is planned to plateau in FY 1993. The President's FY 1993 Budget Request for the U.S. Global Change Research Program is $1,372.4 million, a 24 percent increase over the FY 1992 funding level. This request includes $162.5 million for NSF, an increase of $54 million or 50% above the FY 1992 level: $133.7 million for GEO; $7.1 million for the U.S. Antarctic Program; $9.85 million for the Biological Sciences Directorate; and $11.85 million for the Social, Behavioral and Economic Sciences Directorate. The goal of GEO's global change programs is to understand the interrelated dynamics of Earth systems in their present state, and to use modeling capabilities to predict future changes. Major themes involve studies of global ocean and atmospheric circulation; the continental hydrologic cycle; global tropospheric chemistry; exchanges of biological and chemical materials within the oceans and among the atmosphere, land and ocean; ecosystems; the role of the polar regions in global change; properties of the solid earth, especially tectonics and geodynamics; studies of the latitudinal coupling of the middle and upper atmospheric regions; effects of solar variability; and evidence of these processes operating in the past at various temporal and spatial scales. The full complement of GEO's global change programs, categorized by the science priority area they address, is shown on page 14. These programs, summarized briefly below, are described in more detail in National Science Foundation Global Change Research Program: FY 1991-1992 Research Opportunities (NSF Pub. No. 91-33), a publication that is currently being updated for FY 1993. International Field Programs GEO contributes to four major international field programs: the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE), the Joint Global Ocean Flux Study (JGOFS), the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA) Program, and the International Global Atmospheric Chemistry (IGAC) Programme. These programs are components of the World Climate Research Programme (WOCE and TOGA) and the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (JGOFS and IGAC). The investment by NSF and other agencies in these programs has produced significant results, and support for these programs will continue during FY 1994-1998. TOGA is a 10-year program (1985-1994) designed to examine whether the coupled ocean-atmosphere system can be modeled to predict climate and its variations on interannual time scales. Notable success has already been achieved in forecasting the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. A major field program -- the TOGA Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment (COARE) -- is planned for FY 1992-1993, with expanded regional observations for up to a year before and after the intensive observational period. The objectives of this experiment are to describe and understand processes responsible for the formation of the warm pool of ocean water in the western Pacific, the atmospheric convection that results, the oceanic response, and the multiple-scale interactions that extend the influence of the warm pool to other regions. Analyses of these data and efforts to integrate them into coupled models will be accelerated throughout the rest of the decade. The main goal of WOCE is to understand the global ocean circulation well enough to model its present state and predict its evolution in response to long-term climate changes. At any location, several years of ocean measurements are usually required to understand general ocean circulation. The WOCE measurement program began in 1991, and new data on the general circulation of the Pacific Ocean are now being processed. The program is supported by a number of agencies and will be fully implemented in 1994. The U.S. Antarctic Program supports research contributing to WOCE, with emphasis on process experiments in the Southern Ocean, including a coordinated, international study of the Weddell Gyre and an eddy diffusion study at the base of the Antarctic Peninsula. The overall objective of the Global Tropospheric Chemistry Program (GTCP) is to measure, understand, and predict changes in the chemistry of the global atmosphere, emphasizing changes affecting the oxidizing capacity and radiative properties of the atmosphere and the atmospheric component of biogeochemical cycles. Major aircraft and land-based field observations to investigate atmospheric cycles of nitrogen, sulphur, and oxidant species are scheduled throughout the 1990s, including multi-agency and international activities that will be part of the International Global Atmospheric Chemistry (IGAC) Programme. IGAC/GTCP field projects scheduled for 1993 and 1994 include studies of surface exchange processes and photochemistry in equatorial and mid-latitude continental and oceanic regions of the globe. In addition to field programs, research on the modeling of global scale chemistry, the development of chemical transformation and transport algorithms for inclusion in general circulation models, and laboratory investigations of the mechanisms and rates of key chemical reactions are also supported. U.S. JGOFS. This program is designed to identify and quantify biological and chemical processes that control large-scale cycling and fluxes in the ocean and at its boundaries well enough to predict their influence on perturbations to the global environment. A five-nation field program in the North Atlantic in 1989 produced the best existing data set for studying the seasonal progression of changes in the carbon cycle. Two long-term time-series stations have been established, one near Hawaii and the other near Bermuda. U.S. JGOFS and its international parent JGOFS have begun a 2-year Pacific Process Study that involves several Pacific rim countries and joint collaboration with IGAC. Expeditions in 1993 will focus on the Southern Ocean and be followed by Indian Ocean studies in 1994. During this period the U.S. and other participating countries will be conducting CO2 analyses, and perhaps pigment and optical measurements, on WOCE track lines. The U.S. Antarctic Program plans to support projects meeting the goals of U.S. JGOFS in FY 1994-1998. The extensive continental shelves, the low stability of the euphotic zone, and the seasonal sea ice cover of the polar regions produce unique environmental conditions that affect regional biogeochemical cycles. The vastness of the Southern Ocean makes it a crucial component for developing biogeochemical budgets for the ocean. Other Climate & Hydrology Programs The Role of Clouds, Energy and Water (ROCEW) program supports studies of the role of clouds as feedbacks on global climate processes. High priority will be given to research related to the following: (1) the composition, optical thickness and radiative properties of clouds, particularly cirrus clouds, (2) the role of entrainment in cloud formation and dissipation, and (3) the dynamical interactions of clouds and their environment. A modeling component will focus on scale interactions, especially parameterizations of the role of clouds as a climate feedback. In addition to the cloud studies, ROCEW will support work on the thermal balance of the atmosphere and the exchange of moisture and energy with land, ocean, and ice. Methods of predicting changes in water distribution in the atmosphere and underlying surfaces will be developed. ROCEW will contribute to the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) of the World Climate Research Programme. The Continental Hydrologic Processes (CHP) program addresses four areas related to understanding the continental hydrologic cycle in the context of global change: (1) Atmosphere-Land Surface Interactions at the Mesoscale -- improved knowledge of the spatial and temporal variability of rainfall, snow cover, soil moisture, groundwater recharge, runoff, sedimentation and evapotranspiration over a broad range of scales will be addressed; (2) Scaling of Dynamic Behavior -- basic research will be supported on the scale dependence and scale invariance of hydrologic processes in space and time; (3) Biogeochemical Fluxes -- CHP will consider the transport of sediment and chemical constituents in the hydrologic system; and (4) General Circulation Models (GCMs) -- CHP will consider feedbacks from the hydrologic system in the context of GCMs. The CHP program began in FY 1991, and will expand steadily through FY 1998. Climate System Modeling and Database Management Earth system processes and feedbacks are complex. Therefore, questions about future states of our environment -- global and regional distributions of temperature and precipitation, sea level, water resources, and biological productivity -- can be studied only through theoretical model simulations and predictions. The Climate Modeling, Analysis and Prediction (CMAP) program will support university and NCAR projects in model development, testing, validation, error estimation, and assessment of predictability, with special attention to separating natural from human-induced variability. CMAP will address temporal scales from seasonal to centennial and spatial scales from regional to global, and will also help define the global change observational requirements from a modeling perspective. CMAP will include enhancements to ongoing modeling efforts such as NCAR's Community Climate Model and support for new projects aimed at accelerating coupled climate system modeling. The program will be implemented in collaboration with modeling programs of other CEES agencies and will be complementary to and integrated with research in Federal laboratories. An essential component in the development of climate models is the management of data. GEO's Geosystems Databases program involves a sustained effort, in cooperation with other science agencies, to collect, organize, process, and assimilate, using state-of-the-art models, long-term global synoptic data to understand how the Earth functions as a system. This program will support many activities in global change and geosciences disciplinary research. Over the period of this plan, the geosciences will experience rapid advances in the amount and quality of observational and modeling data available for research. Management of these data will require both increased human support and enhanced technology. Development of Geosystems Databases and the planning necessary to handle large, integrated data sets must be done in the context of a national commitment and plan. In 1987, NOAA, NASA, NSF, USGS, DOE, and DOD (Navy) formed the Ad Hoc Interagency Working Group on Data Management for Global Change. This multiagency commitment is to develop a national data and information system for global change research by 1995 that is consistent across agencies and supports universities and other user communities. Geosystems Databases will be NSF's contribution to the Interagency Working Group's program and will be carried out within the framework of that program. A major NSF role will be to provide hardware, software, and the communication networks necessary for the scientific community to use data effectively for research and education. Research on new techniques for managing large, complex data sets and on standards for general archiving of value-added or derived subsets of raw data will be supported. Ecological Systems and Dynamics GEO supports ecological studies of relevance to global change through five programs: Global Ocean Ecosystems Dynamics (GLOBEC); Land-Margin Ecosystems Research (LMER); Ozone Depletion/UV Effects; Antarctic Ecosystems; and Arctic System Science (ARCSS; see pages 21-23). The effects of global climate change on animal populations and biomass in the world ocean are neither obvious nor predictable. Population variability can be dramatic, particularly in populations contributing to human food supplies. In the context of future climate changes, GLOBEC will focus on how changes in ocean physics affect animal population dynamics, community composition, and the stability of ocean ecosystems. Planning is active at community, agency, and international levels for process studies in the North Atlantic, Eastern Pacific, Southern Ocean and Arabian Sea. Model development involving the coupling of biological and physical systems, with emphases on micro to mesoscale regions, has begun. Acoustic technology development has been initiated in GLOBEC to enhance ocean sampling of animals over large space and time scales. The first focused research activity of GLOBEC is an investigation of the long-term variability of North Atlantic animal populations in the context of climate/ocean variability, beginning in 1992. Planning efforts include participation of NOAA and international partners (Canada and North European countries). Coastal regions will attract increasing numbers of the world human population and be impacted by the consequent anthropogenic effects. LMER is a cooperative program between GEO and the Directorate for Biological Sciences for interdisciplinary research on ecosystems at the land-sea interface and their composite populations and natural communities. Emphases include understanding of increasing pollution (particularly eutrophication) consequences of increased global temperatures and rising sea level. A five-year research program in the Chesapeake Bay started in FY 1988. The program expanded and became multi-agency (NOAA, EPA) in FY 1990 with joint support of multi-year studies of the Columbia River system, Cape Cod region, and Tomales Bay, California, estuary. During FY 1994-1998, up to five additional regional, multi-investigator projects will be developed to address other environmental regimes. Planning is under way to develop integrated analyses of these diverse coastal research programs during the mid to late 1990s. Future changes in global climate may have the greatest impact on high latitude ecosystems. GEO has under way several interdisciplinary investigations of terrestrial, limnetic, and marine ecosystems in Antarctica including investigations of the impacts of increased ultraviolet radiation on species composition and ecosystem dynamics. This Antarctic Ecosystems program is complementary to GLOBEC objectives. Information on environmental change, whether human-induced or natural, can only be found from long-term data sets. Therefore, Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) studies are vital to understanding environmental change on interannual to decadal time scales. The first LTER in the Antarctic was started in FY 1990 to begin long-term investigations of marine ecosystems, and a second LTER is planned for FY 1993. The Ozone Depletion/UV Effects program supports studies of increased ultraviolet (UV) radiation reaching Earth's surface as a result of ozone depletion and its effects on the biota and ecosystem. This research includes instrumentation development for UV monitoring; UV data collection, reduction and distribution to the science community; and field, laboratory, and statistical efforts. The program also supports observational and theoretical studies of antarctic ozone depletion targeted to aid understanding of stratospheric ozone chemistry, with particular emphasis on the depletion of ozone over Antarctica. The depletion phenomenon is studied in a series of balloon-borne and land-based field projects in Antarctica. This effort will continue during FY 1994-1998. Much progress has been made in understanding the chemistry of the ozone hole, but now attention will turn to its dynamics, particularly as the hole deepens and increases in extent. Earth System History The integrated response of the Earth system to climatic and environmental perturbations is preserved in natural archives of many types, including tree rings; ice cores; marine, lake and terrestrial sediments; corals; pollen and microfossil assemblages; and ancient soils. The physical, chemical, geological and biological parameters of these systems provide the data necessary to reconstruct Earth's natural behavior, to evaluate the effects of human activities, and to test GCM predictions. These records of the past are, in some cases, the only way to study certain kinds of natural environments and phenomena, e.g., Milankovitch cycles and past periods of extreme global heat and cold. The GEO Earth System History activity includes coordinated programs from all four GEO Divisions and concentrates on critical components of the coupled earth-ocean- atmosphere system, including those aspects that cross several disciplinary boundaries. The GEO activity began in FY 1989-1990 with the Greenland Ice Sheet Project (GISP2; page 21) and studies of the geological record, expanded to include short-term variability studies in FY 1991 and FY 1992, and will increase to FY 1998 with support for all elements of the program. It will contribute to the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) Past Global Changes (PAGES) core project. Abrupt Climate Change (ACC). The primary focus of this Atmospheric Sciences program is on understanding episodes of rapid climatic changes lasting several tens to several hundreds of years that occurred during the past few hundred thousand years. Field programs, data analysis and modeling studies are concentrating on sensitive areas or those of high climatic impact, i.e., monsoon regions; high latitudes, especially arctic lake and estuary systems; ice sheets; and the tropics. The Abrupt Climate Change program is coordinated with Polar Programs' paleoenvironment component of ARCSS (see pages 20-22). Marine Aspects of Earth System History (MESH). The MESH report (1991) identifies four aspects of Earth system history with records primarily contained in marine sediments. Research supported by the MESH program of the Division of Ocean Sciences will focus on understanding two major boundary conditions that impact climate change -- the geologic records of the carbon system and of sea level changes. Research will focus on understanding controls on changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases on time scales of thousands of years and rates and magnitudes of sea level change in the glacial and pre-glacial past. Major climate perturbations will be examined through analysis of past instabilities in the ocean-atmosphere system and studies of environments of extreme warm periods. The history of deep and surface water circulation changes will be coordinated with records of atmospheric circulation to provide data sets for validating climate models. Brief warming events superimposed on glacial conditions and longer episodes with partial polar ice and ice-free episodes will be studied to validate models for conditions significantly different from those of the present. Collections of new, high resolution marine cores are a requirement for these studies. Additional sample material will be provided by ocean drilling, recovery of ice cores, and sampling of the terrestrial record. Geologic Record of Global Change (GRGC). The objective of the Geologic Record of Global Change program of the Earth Sciences Division is to use the wide variety of geologic records as proxies to interpret and understand the interactive processes that affect the time variability of past environmental and climate changes. The focus is both to understand specific processes and describe the regional and global distribution of environments as a function of time so that models of global change may be checked against established data bases. In addition, attention will be paid to specific time intervals in the past that have particular promise for interpreting the cause of extreme environmental conditions, and to the use of the geologic record to quantify and understand the geochemical cycling of elements and nutrients during intervals with different environmental regimes. Solid Earth Processes The Geodynamics program supports three main activities: the development and deployment of a global network of wideband digital seismometers for monitoring and understanding earthquakes; Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers to monitor and understand the accumulation and release of crustal strain and to monitor changes in sea level; and field studies in active tectonics, including studies of earthquake frequency (tree rings and trenching), studies of volcanoes and their effects on the chemistry and physics of the atmosphere, and recent changes in geomorphology and sedimentation patterns resulting from global environmental changes and/or tectonic forces. During FY 1994-1998, this program will continue acquisition of digital seismometers and GPS receivers and will emphasize field studies of sea level change using the Navstar satellite system with GPS instrumentation, and volcano-atmosphere interactions. Ridge Interdisciplinary Global Experiments (RIDGE) seeks to understand the physical, chemical, and biological causes and consequences of energy transfer through time and space between the global midocean ridge volcanic system and the ocean environment. The primary objective of RIDGE relative to global change is to understand the geological, chemical, biological, and physical oceanographic interactions between the oceans and hydrothermal circulation of seawater through the ocean crust. Most of the heat loss from Earth's interior occurs through the midocean ridge system by means of this circulation. Since the crustal generation process is episodic, large local releases of heat are expected to be episodic on periods of decades to centuries, with a higher frequency on the fast-spreading ridges in the Pacific than on the slower-spreading ridges in the Atlantic. Hydrothermal circulation inputs heat and chemicals to the bottom surface of the oceans, and thus relatively small inputs may have pronounced effects. The extent of these effects is, however, relatively unknown. Projects aimed at understanding hydrothermal circulation occurred in 1991-1994 on the Juan de Fuca Ridge, the East Pacific Rise, and the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. Solar Influences The main goal of the Coupling, Energetics, and Dynamics of Atmospheric Regions (CEDAR) program is to define and understand the global influence of the solar energy input on the Earth's upper atmosphere (90-1000 km) and the energetic, dynamic, latitudinal and vertical coupling between that region and the middle atmosphere (50-90 km). Between 1993 and 1998, more than 20 field campaigns are planned, ranging from coordinated, multi-instrument studies of high latitude plasma structures to studies of the dynamics of the equatorial ionosphere and thermosphere. These campaigns rely heavily on upgraded existing facilities, new instrument development, and the deployment of new observing stations. There is a high degree of collaboration and coordination between the NSF CEDAR activity and other Federal agencies and laboratories (NASA, NOAA, Air Force Phillips Laboratory, NRL). In addition, many of the campaign activities have been accepted by major international scientific organizations as core programs in international global programs. The geospace environment is a relatively unexplored link in the chain connecting the sun to the atmosphere by way of radiation, particles and fields. The Geospace Environmental Modeling (GEM) program aims to formulate a mathematical framework that predicts "weather and climate" in geospace. Such a geospace circulation model is important for predicting the effects of solar-terrestrial variations in the Earth system and for understanding solar-terrestrial impacts on technological systems such as high-latitude power grids. The major thrust is to monitor the upper atmosphere using state-of-the-art remote sensing; interpretation of the data will require theory campaigns and discipline data centers. Other agencies and nations have been active participants in the planning process for GEM. Starting in FY 1993, GEM will target theory and observing campaigns to understand the dayside magnetospheric boundary and the transfer of solar energy into the polar upper atmosphere. Understanding the sources of "noise" is an essential element to describe any physical process. To understand anthropogenic global changes, we must identify the noise due to natural variations: solar variability and volcanoes. The solar dynamo has variations on very long time scales associated with terrestrial climate change, e.g., the 17th Century Little Ice Age and the 11th Century Medieval Optimum. The Radiative Inputs of the Sun to the Earth (SunRISE) program examines the solar origin of variations of the solar constant (total irradiance) and spectral irradiance, particularly the UV and EUV components. Starting in FY 1993, SunRISE will begin to implement its plan to establish observing and theoretical goals aimed at understanding the solar radiative component of global and climate change. This will aid in distinguishing signal from noise as we try to determine anthropogenic influences on Earth's environment. Arctic System Science The goals of Arctic System Science are to understand the physical, geological, chemical, biological, and social processes of the arctic system that interact with the total Earth system and thus contribute to or are influenced by global change. ARCSS seeks to advance the scientific basis for predicting environmental change on a decade to centuries time scale and to formulate policy options in response to the expected impacts on humans and societal support systems. This program has Directorate-wide sponsorship. ARCSS research activities include: Greenland Ice Sheet Project II (GISP2). GISP2, the first project in the ARCSS program, is the cornerstone of the program's commitment to the study of paleoclimates. Retrieval of a deep ice core from central Greenland is under way. An ice core extending to a depth of 3,200 meters is expected to yield a high resolution paleoclimatic and atmospheric record spanning approximately 200,000 years. Drilling of the GISP2 ice core is part of complementary efforts among scientists from the U.S. and several European countries. Field work, begun in May 1989, is expected to continue through 1993, with data analysis extending through 1996. The coordinated multidisciplinary program is conducted by researchers from 12 universities. Paleoclimates from Arctic Lakes and Estuaries (PALE). Because of their rich biological records and close association with changing ice sheets, sediments from polar and subpolar lakes, bogs and estuaries are sensitive indicators of past climate fluctuations. These sediments contain detailed records of changes in the physical environment and responses of the biosphere. Proxy records obtained from these sediments will aid in understanding the role of arctic air masses in the changing patterns of atmospheric circulation and environmental and biotic responses to those changes. Studies of lake and near-shore ocean sediments around Greenland will be especially helpful in interpreting ice core records expected from GISP2. Development of this analytical technique is under way. The program is expected to grow steadily during this planning period. Ocean-Atmosphere-Ice Interactions. ARCSS research will investigate the effects of energy exchange on the water column in the Arctic Ocean and adjoining seas and ocean, and interactions with the overlying atmosphere. Research strategies focus on determination of atmosphere/ocean interactions at marginal ice edges and polynyas; determination of continental shelf/ocean basin interactions; formulation of Arctic Ocean/atmosphere processes in the context of models linking global ocean, atmosphere and biosphere; and investigation of the deposition and cycling of biogenic materials at the sediment/water interface of continental shelves and slopes. Science workshops have served to focus interested communities. Interagency planning led to a strategy document for an FY 1991 start to the program, with planned growth through 1998. Land-Atmosphere-Ice Interactions. Interactions between atmosphere, land and ice in the Arctic also have major global impacts. A strategy for an integrated land-atmosphere-ice program, which includes social sciences, has been developed and highlights the following questions: how do feedback processes within the arctic system amplify global climate change, its effects, and climate variability within the Arctic; how will arctic and global systems be affected by, and have an effect upon, changes in the fluxes of ice, fresh water, and water-borne materials; how will ecosystems and humans in the Arctic respond to global change; and how will changes in the arctic system affect the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. An NSF program announcement was issued for FY 1992. A special acquisition and instrumentation development program is planned for 1994 to provide necessary analytical capabilities and logistical facilities for the ARCSS program. Hydrological Sciences The second highest priority environmental initiative for GEO is to establish within the Division of Earth Sciences, in cooperation with the Division of Atmospheric Sciences, a new program in Hydrologic Sciences. "Hydrologic Science can now be seen as a geoscience interactive on a wide range of space and time scales with the ocean, atmospheric, and solid earth sciences as well as with the plant and animal sciences." The quote, extracted from the 1991 NRC report Opportunities in the Hydrologic Sciences, emphasizes the broad scope of this subject. The breadth of scientific disciplines participating in research to gain a full understanding of the hydrological cycle, and the importance of water to human populations, underscore the major role a number of Federal agencies play in different mission-related aspects of the hydrological sciences. This growing importance of the hydrologic sciences is also reflected in a dramatic increase in the hiring of hydrologists in academic geoscience departments. Nevertheless, until recently there was limited Federal support for basic research in this field (unless related to specific applications) and NSF support was concentrated largely on engineering aspects. This new Hydrologic Sciences program will be aimed at fundamental scientific understanding of Earth's hydrologic systems and development of a sound scientific basis for the many and varied applications of hydrology. The scope of the program is wide and includes research on precipitation, lakes, streams, and groundwater, and their interactions with landforms, climate, weather, the biosphere, and the Earth's crust. This program provides needed supporting research for several focused global change programs: Continental Hydrologic Processes (CHP), the Role of Clouds, Energy and Water (ROCEW), and the international Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX). In the years 1994-1998 GEO plans to augment this program and develop more fully its linkages with other programs in the Foundation and in other Federal agencies that deal with aspects of water research. There is growing support for an interagency program of freshwater studies that would bring together the physical, chemical and geologic aspects of water science with aquatic biology and ecosystems research. U.S. Weather Research Program The 1990s will bring unprecedented opportunity to make major advances in the scientific understanding of storm-scale weather phenomena because: (1) the deployment of new, operational high resolution instruments (e.g., atmospheric profilers, NEXRAD radars) has begun and will be completed by the mid-1990s; and (2) major advances in research instruments (e.g., airborne Doppler radar, multiparameter radars, millimeter wavelength radar) will permit measurements of evolving storm-scale weather systems in detail not available previously. These opportunities and the benefits from advances in scientific understanding have been recognized by several Federal agencies. An interagency storm-scale research initiative began in FY 1992, with GEO taking the lead for basic research studies. This initiative -- the U.S. Weather Research Program -- has been approved by the CEES Subcommittee on Atmospheric Research and the CEES, and has been presented to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB). The program stems from seven years of planning for the Storm-scale Operational and Research Meteorology (STORM) program. At least 125 scientists have been involved in the planning and are committed to participate. The national observational system modernization, coupled with improvements in specialized research equipment, provides the foundation for the following elements of the NSF Storm-scale Research Program: Execution of a series of field experiments, beginning in FY 1992, designed to increase fundamental understanding of storm-scale phenomena with emphasis on investigating interactions between various scales of the atmosphere ("scale interaction" experiments); Storm-scale numerical modeling research emphasizing incorporation of key physical processes, four-dimensional data assimilation, improved parameterizations, and development of advanced numerical techniques to be pursued in parallel with the field programs; Access for researchers and students to the improved operational data stream and the computing power necessary to process and analyze it; Support of diagnostic studies of storm-scale phenomena using the greatly expanded mesometeorological data base; and Educational opportunities, which are essential to produce a generation of meteorologists capable of fully exploiting these new data systems and advancing the science. This initiative will involve close collaboration among universities, NCAR, and other Federal agencies and their scientists. Coastal Ocean Processes The coastal ocean has special societal, scientific and policy importance. As the Nation's population shifts toward coastal regions, the pressures on coastal margins continue to increase, endangering living resources, habitats, natural protective structures and, in turn, human populations. Effective management by federal, state and local agencies requires greatly enhanced fundamental understanding of how weather, tides, currents, sediment transport and biological production interact. Although GEO's Ocean Sciences Division has always supported individual research projects in coastal oceanography as part of base funding, the need for coordinated interdisciplinary studies to address these complex relationships is increasing rapidly. In 1991 the Subcommittee on Coastal Ocean Science was established within the Committee on Earth and Environmental Sciences (CEES) of FCCSET to coordinate federal activities in coastal sciences. The CEES Subcommittee is preparing a Science Framework Document (programs and priorities) with baseline historical information on agencies and budgets, specifying future program development and budget options. As a contribution to interagency planning, NSF has supported an academic community planning activity (CoOP - Coastal Ocean Processes) to identify the most important unanswered questions of basic science within the coastal ocean in relation to societal needs. The report will be published shortly by the CoOP steering committee. NSF solicited proposals for an interdisciplinary pilot study on selected topics within the coastal zone in FY 1991. The Coastal Ocean program will develop to maturity over the FY 1994-98 time frame. Multidisciplinary Research on the Environment In addition to the focused environmental priorities described above, GEO is a major participant in the NSF-wide activities in Multidisciplinary Research on the Environment, an effort designed to provide fundamental scientific understanding across major areas of environmental science, to develop and implement new approaches to basic research on the environment, and to build scientific infrastructure and human resource capability. This evolving research activity, with participation by six research Directorates, is responsive to the Nation's need to respond to the increasing number of complex regional environmental problems, which was a key criterion in selecting the areas of emphasis. Other selection criteria used were science community interest and readiness. Toward achieving the goal of understanding complex environmental systems, GEO plans to expand its support of the following multidisciplinary research areas during the FY 1994-1998 time frame. Arctic Environmental Research Public, scientific, governmental and international concerns for the well-being and protection of the Arctic are increasing. The Arctic is being exposed to increasing inputs of contaminants from lower latitudes through atmospheric, marine and riverine transport. The spatial and temporal variability of contaminants, their fates and effects, and the overall status and trends in the quality of the arctic environment and the condition of the biota are generally not well known. Though conspicuous changes in plant and animal distribution and standing stocks are being reported in the scientific literature and popular press with increasing frequency, it is often difficult to distinguish between changes in the environment due to human-induced activities and those resulting from natural variability. Within the last ten years, the governments of the circumpolar nations have become increasingly aware of the need, and their responsibility, to combat these threats to the arctic ecosystem. In June 1991, the United States and seven other arctic nations signed the Declaration on the Protection of the Arctic Environment. U.S. agencies, in accord with this agreement, propose to develop their contribution to the international Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program (AMAP). The GEO Arctic Environmental Research initiative will contribute to and coordinate with programs undertaken by ten other Federal agencies through sponsorship of basic research that is highly complementary to previously established NSF programs (including Long-Term Ecological Research, Land-Margin Ecosystems Research, Arctic System Science, and core programs in several other Divisions). As a start to developing this program, GEO will encourage utilization of existing sites (Biosphere Reserves, LTER and other long-term sites) and new, high latitude ecological and environmental sites to establish a network of long-term circumarctic sites and transects from which the magnitude and timing of changes in the physical, biological and human environments can be established and differentiated from natural and anthropogenic causes. These permanent sites and transects will be established across climatically sensitive ecotones and environmental boundaries and gradients. Research and observation facilitated under this initiative will link space and in situ observations. While terrestrial environments will be emphasized, near-shore oceanic environments will be included to achieve understanding of the land-sea interface. The Arctic Environmental Research effort shares many characteristics with NSF's ongoing research and will be broadly and fully coordinated among investigators, institutions and sponsoring agencies. Research support will be planned and committed for time periods of decades and longer. This research initiative will: provide a framework within which the use of data derived from NSF-sponsored basic research, as well as other agency sponsored assessment and monitoring of pollutants and disturbance, can be optimized; establish a quantitative baseline against which natural variability and future changes can be evaluated; allow early detection of biological and physical changes in the environment; serve as a basis for management, mitigation and preservation of biodiversity (flora, fauna, and habitats); develop more accurate predictive models of arctic variables and establish the necessary information to develop those models; and support U.S. international agreements. Science planning and site selection will be undertaken in FY 1993, with initiation of the program planned for FY 1994. Environmental Geochemistry Understanding the geochemistry of Earth's surface and near-surface environments is critical for resolving many environmental problems facing mankind in the coming decade. These include the availability of adequate water supplies for human consumption and for agricultural use, the closely related problems of disposal of wastes and the fate of contaminants in the crust, the productivity and fertility of soils, and the maintenance and protection of the diverse resources and amenities associated with coastal waters. Of critical interest is an understanding of the interactive biological, geological, chemical and physical processes that control the cycling of elements, nutrients and anthropogenic contaminants through the upper few hundred meters of Earth's surface and from the land into the ocean through rivers, groundwater, and the atmosphere. Such a multidisciplinary approach incorporates the full range of parameters that characterize the surface environment. Areas of research will emphasize new approaches in aqueous and organic geochemistry, soil chemistry and biogenic degradation of contaminants, detailed study of specific reactions on clay and other mineral surfaces, ultra-precise measurements with micrometer-scale resolution of the concentration of elements and compounds, and in-depth investigations of the impact of contaminants on the complex geological and biological systems that characterize our estuarine and coastal regions. New advances in high resolution geochronology will be used to study rates of reactions and residence times for key elements and compounds in their passage through the biogeochemical cycles of the environment. Estimates of the flow of water across the terrestrial/marine boundary and transformations and fates of entrained materials in populous coastal regions are vital to the effective control of potential environmental disasters impacting both human populations and natural ecosystems. The Advisory Committee for Earth Sciences identified this area as the highest priority research need for FY 1994-1998. The Division of Ocean Sciences and its Advisory Committee for Ocean Sciences support activities in environmental geochemistry related to the land/marine boundary. Land-Use Geology As human populations increase, there is an urgent need to manage the use of the land and its resources in a manner that links concern for the long term protection of the global environment with sound economic practices. The burgeoning growth places considerable stress on existing areas of habitation, pushes the exploitation of areas marginal for human livelihood, and increases the dependence on available resources for agricultural land. Land use affects the planning of cities, the construction of major projects, the safety of people and the distribution of agricultural productivity. Wise policies for the overall use of the land must be secured on a base of scientific understanding of the processes that control the character and evolution of the Earth's surface. Basic research is needed to understand the relative contributions of natural versus anthropogenic activities and processes to changes in the land's surface. Such knowledge becomes the essential reference for providing insights on how to plan the distribution and type of land use. Areas of emphasis will include research on processes such as erosion and sedimentation, desertification, and slope stability that affect the geomorphological evolution and use of the land. Recent developments in the use of cosmogenic nuclides to date surfaces, the use of satellite and airborne imagery to characterize surfaces, and the availability of large computers to manipulate large geographic databases promise rapid developments in new understanding of the processes that govern geomorphic evolution. A land-use initiative will be started in the Earth Sciences Division in FY 1993 and will be enhanced to provide for the rapidly expanding research needs expected in FY 1994 to 1998. Stressed Coastal Ecosystems Coral reefs are important resources, both economically and in terms of biodiversity, and may be sensitive environmental indicators, particularly for vulnerable coastal and shallow-water regions of the tropics and sub-tropics. The world's reef and related ecosystems are in a declining state of health, and there is need for a long-term scientific assessment of the problem. A workshop sponsored by NSF, NOAA and EPA concluded that GEO's Ocean Sciences Division, with potential collaboration from other GEO and Directorate for Biological Sciences Divisions, will respond to this need by supporting research that contributes to the understanding of reef systems and their responses to thermal and other environmental stressors. Increasing attention is also being paid to the phenomenon of harmful algal blooms, which have been increasing in many U.S. coastal regions as well as other parts of the world. Toxic "red tides" which directly poison fish and other marine life, and intense phytoplankton blooms which die off and create anoxic conditions in such areas as the Chesapeake Bay, appear to be on the rise. Workshops sponsored by intergovernmental organizations implicate human activities in contaminating coastal areas, and indicate the need to understand the complex chain of events in order to abate them. Integrated Regional Modeling Human social and economic structures are shaped to a large extent by the regional environment in which they exist. Recent attention to potentially significant changes to the global environment caused by human activity emphasizes anew the lack of understanding of the more obvious effects of these activities on local and regional scales. The recent and projected growth of metropolitan centers leads to megapolitan corridors altering sizable fractions of continental surface areas, especially in the watersheds of the continental margins. More than two decades ago, preliminary descriptions of urban heat island effects were developed. Some of the these effects include local atmospheric circulation anomalies, elevated concentrations of atmospheric pollutants, modification of the nuclei affecting cloud and precipitation distributions, and alterations in the relative probability of rain and snow and energy demand, acid rain, episodes of elevated levels of ozone in rural areas, and groundwater and estuarine water contamination. Downstream of these high population density regions, massive plumes of anthropogenic gases and aerosols alter the physical and chemical environment over even larger land and water surface areas. The Integrated Regional Modeling activity will support a systematic quantification of the anthropogenic effects on the environment on a regional scale, by in situ and remote measurements, both from advanced observational systems soon to be deployed as part of other major research initiatives, and regionally augmented observations. Computer hardware and software advances will allow integration and analysis of these new data as well as historical data sets. It is expected that this initiative will include a detailed interdisciplinary examination of the environment and the factors that control it in selected sensitive regions of North America. A mix of centers (new and existing), groups, and individual investigator research is planned. Two key components of this initiative are atmospheric science and landscape ecology of the watershed. Atmospheric science elements will include: (1) urban effects on regional weather and climate, (2) process studies on regional air quality, (3) biosphere-atmosphere exchanges and interactions, and (4) regional changes wrought by past cultures. Landscape ecology elements will include (1) the effects of watershed development on the transport and fate of atmospheric deposition within and through the watershed, (2) watershed-atmosphere exchanges and interactions, and (3) the effects of these interactions and environmental quality. These efforts should produce information that will allow the development of predictive capabilities that would help serve the needs of decisionmakers at the local, regional and national level. Initial planning will begin in FY 1992 with a workshop planned jointly by the Divisions of Social and Economic Science, Environmental Biology, and Atmospheric Sciences. A program of research is planned to begin in FY 1993. IV. Disciplinary Programs Disciplinary research programs, often referred to as the core programs, are essential for gaining increased understanding of phenomena in the geosciences. Basic research funded through the disciplinary programs provides the essential foundation for special focused efforts such as Global Change and is necessary to ensure the intellectual basis for addressing the environmental problems of tomorrow. During the next five years, GEO will continue to strengthen the disciplinary base. There are many examples of how sustained support of the core disciplines has resulted in discoveries and applications of great benefit to society. For instance, twenty years of support for basic research in atmospheric chemistry and meteorology, support for the logistical network in the U.S. Antarctic Program, NASA aircraft, and the National Scientific Balloon Facility provided the foundation for discovery and unraveling the chemical processes causing the antarctic ozone hole. In 1977, NSF made an award supporting an investigator's hypothesis that a meteorological phenomenon called a "microburst" was the cause of certain fatal aircraft accidents. Events that followed this initial award led to the development of an operational microburst detection system that is now saving aircraft. Other examples include twenty years of support for El Nino studies leading to the development of forecasting capability for this important factor in worldwide climate variations, and the importance of the NSF investment in basic seismic research and facilities in anticipating months in advance Loma Prieta, California as a possible site for an earthquake in 1989, and for mounting a rapid response to that event. Disciplinary and multidisciplinary activities supported by the core programs are described in the sections below. No attempt is made here to fully describe the diversity of research supported by the core. Such descriptions can be found in each GEO Division's long range plans. Atmospheric Sciences Atmospheric sciences builds on the knowledge of physics, chemistry, mathematics, and other sciences to study the physics and chemistry of Earth's atmosphere and its response to solar, geospace, and terrestrial processes. This research is necessary to improve understanding and prediction of climate, weather, and the global environmental system. In view of the scales and complexities of atmospheric phenomena, much of the supported research involves large, organized observational programs. Much of our present knowledge of the integrated Sun-Earth system is based on discoveries made by individual scientists working on self-contained problems. Based on this foundation, global campaigns that require national and international coordination are mounted. These focused projects, or community initiatives, must be accompanied by support for the scientific opportunities emerging in broadly-based research programs. The NSF Advisory Committee for Atmospheric Sciences (ACAS) reviewed in detail fourteen broad community initiatives and nearly twenty base initiatives for disciplinary research proposed by NSF and NCAR staff members and ACAS members. The highest ranked community initiative outside of global change is the NSF Solar-Terrestrial Energy Program (NSF-STEP). The base initiatives of highest scientific potential recommended for expanded support are Cloud Physics, Middle Atmosphere Science, Prediction, Climate, Geospace Laboratory and Solar Physics. NSF Solar-Terrestrial Energy Program (NSF-STEP) STEP is an international program established under ICSU for the 1990-1997 time frame. The key theme of NSF-STEP is to understand the global integration and large-scale coupling of the Sun to Earth's atmosphere through basic research into micro-meso-macro scale physics using ground-based observations, which for certain parameters can be more effective than observations from spacecraft. NSF-STEP promises to be an important catalyst for basic research in solar-terrestrial science, leveraging through STEP an international investment of over $3 billion worldwide over the coming decade. The NSF-STEP initiative provides a scientific focus and internationally-based framework for several solar-terrestrial research activities which are important to Earth system science in general. Close ties to GEO's global change programs will be maintained (especially CEDAR, GEM and SunRISE) although the focus is on science projects not overlapping global change. Cloud Physics Studying the role of clouds in global climate and understanding hydrological processes are high priority GEO objectives. Fundamental cloud physics research will be required to achieve those objectives. In particular, nucleation, or the process involved in the development of the nuclei of cloud droplets, is perhaps the most crucial process in the atmospheric water cycle. Recent progress in understanding nucleation involving the water phase has been encouraging. Ice nucleation, however, is little understood; there is no acceptable method of measurement, hence little observational knowledge and no theoretical predictive capability. In addition, the growth of cloud droplets through coalescence, i.e., droplet collision and capture, is not well modeled. During FY 1994-1998, the Atmospheric Sciences Division will support intensive laboratory and field experiments, as well as research to develop theories and models to explain: (1) the initiation of coalescence, and (2) ice generation or nucleation. Laboratory facilities (large controlled chambers and cloud tunnels), new instruments (ice nucleus counters), and further improvements in airborne cloud physics measurements (in situ and remote) will also be considered for support under this research activity. Middle Atmosphere Research The Atmospheric Sciences Division gives high priority to improving the understanding of the composition and structure of the middle atmosphere, which is determined by complex relationships among the chemical, dynamical, and radiation properties. Understanding these relationships over a wide range of latitudes and altitudes requires the application and development of a variety of new observational and laboratory techniques and the development of specialized models for investigating different phenomena in the middle atmosphere. Atmospheric Sciences plans to support research in this area during FY 1994-1998, including: the exchange of gases, momentum and energy between the troposphere, stratosphere and mesosphere; the mechanisms controlling the dynamics of the middle atmosphere; the chemical and physical processes responsible for ozone loss, especially at high latitudes; the importance of heterogeneous chemical processes in the middle atmosphere; and the radiation balance of this region of the atmosphere. The scientific interest in the middle atmosphere is quite high due to the recent recognition that: 1) significant changes in the composition, temperature, and cloudiness of the middle atmosphere are now occurring; and 2) heterogeneous processes can play an important role in stratospheric ozone depletion and other chemical processes. A variety of new ground-based and space-based techniques are now becoming available to observe and study this region of the atmosphere in a comprehensive manner that previously was not possible. Continuing advances in computer power enable more realistic model simulations of the middle atmosphere and better understanding of theoretical concepts, and the new observational data will help to refine these models and permit their coupling to GCMs and upper atmospheric models. Prediction The ultimate goal of any scientific endeavor is to predict the phenomenon in question. Reliable predictions of atmospheric motion, on both weather and climate time scales, are particularly critical because of the societal and policy implications. Beginning in FY 1994, the Division of Atmospheric Sciences will increase research support to address two outstanding problems in tropospheric and stratospheric prediction: application of nonlinear dynamic systems theory to atmospheric fluid flow and improved numerical simulation of the tropical atmosphere. From nonlinear dynamical systems research has come a branch of physical-statistical theory that is applicable to atmospheric motions at many scales, from turbulence to climate. This is the so-called "chaos theory." The degree to which chaos theory can be applied to the atmosphere must be ascertained. Support for both theoretical and analytical studies in this area will be expanded. Cross-disciplinary research collaboration with investigators with complementary expertise in physics, statistics, and mathematics will also be encouraged. Quasi-periodic atmospheric motions in the tropics, both intraseasonal and seasonal, and related forcing of the extratropical circulation have been documented, but their accurate numerical simulation and prediction remain elusive. Atmospheric Sciences plans to expand support in three research areas beginning in FY 1994: (1) In-depth analysis of basic tropical structure and dynamics using newly available global data sets, (2) research on ways to incorporate new insights into physical processes into numerical models, and (3) research on data assimilation techniques that can maximize information extracted from tropical observations from new observing systems. Terrestrial Paleoenvironments In FY 1994, a multidisciplinary and international program is planned, to retrieve, analyze and interpret a broad series of terrestrial climatic records. Programs of drilling and coring in the world's oceans and ice sheets are continuing to provide the physical evidence that constrain and verify global climate models. However, terrestrial sources of paleoclimate data have not been fully developed and are now required for the full appreciation of the scale of temporal and spatial climatic variability. Rich in biologic materials, the terrestrial paleoclimatic records are sensitive to changes in regional physical environments. Such records of the biosphere's response to long-term climate change are critical to our ability to understand the coupled processes that have influenced past environmental changes. The program will be managed in collaboration with other paleoenvironmental activities in GEO and in the Directorates for Biological Sciences and Social, Behavioral and Economic Sciences. Geospace Laboratory Future studies of geospace will involve increased support for laboratory-style parameter control of one or more key plasma variables -- whether the "laboratory" is Earth-based or part of a geospace laboratory-without-walls. Future "laboratory" studies will emphasize ionospheric modification, studies of comparative planetary environments, numerical simulations, and laboratory plasma experiments. Ionospheric modification provides for selected perturbations of the ionosphere by using special heating facilities (e.g., via the Arecibo Observatory). The study of comparative planetary environments will focus on ground-based observations of cometary and planetary processes aimed at understanding our own upper atmosphere. Laboratory plasma experiments would involve the use of large facilities constructed primarily with DOE and DOD support to provide tests of conditions relevant to the geospace environment. Laboratory experiments will also be carried out to determine key atomic and molecular data essential for aeronomy. New and innovative approaches to numerical simulations will also be pursued. Solar Physics The Sun is the principal driver of dynamical phenomena in the atmospheric and geospace environment. Increased emphasis in solar physics will be given to the nature of solar variability and the resultant terrestrial response. Solar variability, emphasized dramatically by flares, is not well understood, particularly below the photosphere. Yet, in all its forms, outstanding problems exist from the base of the convection zone, through the photosphere, chromosphere, and corona, and into the solar wind, where interactions with the Earth occur. These are manifested in such diverse phenomena, for example, as changes in satellite drag, interference with radio communications, disruption to power lines and modification to the Earth's climate over long time scales. At present, there are large uncertainties about the contribution of solar irradiance variations to global change. Questions to receive emphasis during FY 1994-1998 will be: How does solar variability manifest itself in the terrestrial atmosphere? What is the nature of solar activity? Properly subtracting this contribution of solar variability from the climate record is critical for determining human-induced changes during the present epoch. Earth Sciences Earth Sciences programs support a full range of research conducted by individual investigators, groups and consortia that is essential to the intellectual strength and vitality of the discipline. In order to understand the fundamental processes that govern the distribution of natural water, energy, and mineral resources, the safe disposal of toxic wastes, the occurrence and impact of natural hazards from earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and landslides, and the responsible use of land in major population centers, it is essential to enhance the technical and scientific capability of earth scientists. Scientific thrusts that include multidisciplinary efforts, such as Physics and Chemistry of Earth Materials (PACEM), Active Tectonics, and Structure of the Earth's Deep Interior (SEDI), are described below. The Division also participates in other federal programs, such as the National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program (NEHRP), the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR), and the Continental Scientific Drilling Project (CSDP). Physics and Chemistry of Earth Materials (PACEM) The processes that determine the distribution and transport of matter and energy within the Earth are controlled by the physical and chemical properties and behavior of its component materials. Thus, the study of materials under the extreme conditions that exist in the interior of the Earth, and the characterization of rocks and minerals at ultra-high levels of sensitivity with micrometer scale resolution, is essential to understanding how the Earth works. Recent advances in synchrotron radiation sources, ultra-high pressure diamond cells and multianvil presses, and ultra-sensitive mass spectrometry now provide the technological tools for achieving these goals. Funding for this activity during the period FY 1994 through 1998 will support research projects using the expanded base of capabilities already available as well as instrumentation at the new synchrotron X-ray sources. Active Tectonics The most direct approach to the study of tectonic processes is to focus studies in areas where deformational processes are currently active. These regions are best studied in the field at such plate boundary locations as zones of continental collision, strike slip faulting and major crustal extension. This requires a broad multidisciplinary approach that uses the tools of geology, geophysics and geochemistry to monitor the changing stress fields, fluid pressure regimes, strain rates and evolving thermal structures as the mobile tectonic plates respond to deeper mantle convective forces. The Advisory Committee for Earth Sciences gave strong support for enhanced regional studies at field laboratories in active tectonic areas. Such regions are the locale for major earthquakes, landslides and crustal instabilities, subsidence and coastal flooding, and explosive volcanism. Improvements in basic understanding will help in creating realistic models that will become the basis for improved prediction of natural disasters associated with tectonic forces. Enhancement of multidisciplinary studies of active tectonic regions is planned in the 1994-1998 time frame. Structure of the Earth's Deep Interior (SEDI) Understanding the deep interior of the Earth is the key to explaining critically important phenomena such as the geomagnetic field, the motion of tectonic plates, the origin of volcanism, mantle plumes and deep-seated earthquakes, and the shape of the Earth and its rotational characteristics. Advances in present techniques such as ground-based and satellite measurements of gravity and magnetic fields, satellite geodesy, seismic tomography, isotope tracer mapping, ultra-high pressure research, and supercomputer modeling, promise a new understanding of the dynamic interactions between the core, mantle and crust. Meeting the challenge of these problems will require mobilizing expertise from a wide range of disciplines including computer science and applied mathematics, geomagnetics, geodesy, geochemistry, and high-pressure physics. Scientists working together using data sets from a variety of observational methods and computational techniques will be supported. International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR) As part of the U.S. program for IDNDR, the U.S. National Committee for the Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (NAS/NRC) is currently examining the research agenda related to understanding the causes of natural hazards as a basis for improving strategies to mitigate their adverse effects. In the earth sciences, natural hazards that affect human populations include earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and landslides. The ability to predict, prevent, and mitigate such hazards depends heavily on basic research in earth sciences. With the increasing concentration of human populations in geologic environments where tectonic forces are most active, the impact of geologic forces will become more severe. Seismic networks supported by GEO, geophysical instrumentation, and scientists are becoming more important in this area, and increasing demands for hazard-related research -- both in the U.S. and elsewhere in the world -- will have to be met. This is an area where international scientific collaboration is expected to become increasingly important during the FY 1994-1998 planning period. To provide a resource for academic earth scientists to participate in the IDNDR, support for research on geologic hazards will be increased during the latter part of the five-year planning period. Ocean Sciences The Ocean Sciences Division supports regional research programs in physics, chemistry, geology and geophysics, and biology of the major ocean basins and adjacent seas, estuaries and large lakes. Physical Oceanography is concerned with applying observational, theoretical, and numerical modeling techniques to understand the circulation of these water bodies, including studies of their physical properties; their forcing by the atmospheric fluxes of momentum, heat, and moisture; and mixing by meso- and small-scale turbulence. Marine Geology and Geophysics focuses on the composition and evolution of oceanic crust, deep ocean basins, and continental margins; the distribution, composition, and history of terrigenous and biogenic sediments on the sea floor; and the history of the oceans and past climates. Chemical Oceanography supports research on processes affecting the chemistry of ocean waters and sediments and how the oceans respond to perturbation. Investigators supported by this program study the supply, transport, and removal rates of chemical compounds, as well as how and how fast they are altered. Biological Oceanography supports studies on the relationships among marine organisms and the interaction of these organisms with geochemical and physical processes. The central focus of this program is to understand ecological systems ranging from the ocean margins and continental shelves to central gyres and ocean basins. These core research programs provide vital basic knowledge about the oceans and the seeds from which larger community initiatives have grown. In addition, a significant portion of core research contributes directly to the goals of GEO's global change programs. Community initiatives that have emerged recently or that continue to be sponsored by the core programs are the Ocean Drilling Program, Marine Biotechnology, Oceanographic Technology Development, Cooperative Research on the Mid-Ocean Ridgecrest System, and Continental Margins. These are described below. Ocean Drilling Program The Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) is a multinational program of basic scientific research that uses drilling and logging to improve understanding of the physical, chemical and biological processes that determine the geological history, structure and evolution of the oceanic lithosphere (sediments and crust). Membership in the ODP is governed by Memoranda of Understanding (MOU) between the NSF and international partners. Presently six international partners representing 18 nations are regular members. The MOU identifies the financial contribution of the partner and guarantees the partner full participation in ODP planning, access to data and results, and participation in drilling cruises. The final phase of the Ocean Drilling Program (1994-2003) is based on the scientific and technical requirements in the Long Range Plan for Ocean Drilling. The basic framework for the long range plan was developed at an international conference attended by more than 300 scientists from 25 nations. Four major science themes will guide drilling and provide scientific and technical priorities. These are: Mechanisms controlling changes in ocean and climate systems over geologic time -- including the history of sea level, changes in the carbon cycle and productivity, and the evolution of marine biota; Structure and composition of the crust and upper mantle -- to quantify geochemical flux between the mantle and crust and to determine the composition and heterogeneity of the underlying mantle; The dynamics and deformation of the lithosphere -- to examine the driving forces of plate tectonics and their effect on continental margins; and The circulation of fluids through sedimentary and crustal rocks -- which contribute to global geochemical cycling and influence the formation of mineral and petroleum deposits. Each of these themes will require significant developments in the technology base, including the ability to drill and log deep holes in the high temperature regimes, recovery of undisturbed cores and fluid samples in deep sedimentary sections, and deployment of sampling and monitoring instruments for time-series measurements of crustal and sedimentary processes. Major emphasis and resources in FY 1994-1998 will focus on adapting mining drilling techniques and tools for use aboard the drillship JOIDES Resolution to study mid-ocean ridges. Engineering development will concentrate on improved deep sedimentary drilling including techniques to improve hole stability and recovery of sand units in continental margin environments. Recently developed techniques for post-drilling reentry of boreholes provide capability to replace and retrieve time-series experiments to measure crustal strain, seismicity, fluid flow and geochemistry. The Ocean Drilling Program science objectives interact strongly with other earth sciences and global change research initiatives. Critical samples and data for several of these programs can only be obtained through the ODP. Formal liaison and integration of ODP experiments with the Global Seismic Network, the U.S. Global Change Research Program and INTERRIDGE (a study of the global midocean ridge system) have been established and will expand during the 1990s. Marine Biotechnology A biotechnology thrust is focused on developing the human resources needed to apply the advanced technologies of modern biological sciences to problems in marine ecology, marine biodiversity, and the economic application of marine biota. A postdoctoral fellowship program was established, and individual research projects were initiated to begin applying biotechnologies to ocean systems. In 1991, Ocean Sciences participated in an NSF-wide working group to plan a major biotechnology initiative to contribute to a new FCCSET activity in this area following the Report on National Biotechnology Policy of the President's Council on Competitiveness. The new thrust will be in the direction of using living organisms to make or modify products, improve plants or animals, develop microorganisms for specific uses and develop materials that mimic the structure or function of living systems. There is a vast range of genetic diversity within the marine environment with the potential for biotechnology applications, particularly in the areas of bioprocessing and bioconversion, biomolecular materials, and environmental and medical applications. Oceanographic Technology Development Ocean science research continues to evolve and advance in all its component disciplines. New disciplinary research programs need continued and expanded instrumentation development; in situ sampling and measurement systems, including autonomous remote self-contained units; data management; and new observing systems. A common theme for the Global Change program is the introduction of critical new technologies. Chemical, biological and many physical process studies rely on in situ sampling to obtain fluid samples for laboratory analysis. Increasing sophistication and automation, both in measurement techniques and especially in communication technology, provides opportunities for largely unattended in situ sampling of both physical and biological parameters. New systems are required to take measurements directly in the ocean or at some distance from the sensor and either store the data for later recovery or communicate data to ships or shore laboratories by various means, including satellites, to meet the research goals of ocean sciences. The new techniques and technology must provide coverage that will allow biological and chemical parameters to be sampled at the same space and time scales as physical variables. This ocean sciences technology development will range from autonomous underwater vehicles and new "smart" moorings, to new systems for biochemical measurements such as bio-optics and bioacoustics. Continued development of lower-cost but precise instruments and expendable systems are an important component of the plan. To address identified critical needs, increased emphasis and resources in the FY 1994-1998 time frame will support an expanded and comprehensive program for ocean science technology development. Cooperative Research on the Mid-Ocean Ridgecrest System The goal of this program is to understand the physical, chemical, and biological causes and consequences of the energy transfer through time and space between the global midocean ridge volcanic system and the ocean environment. The RIDGE Initial Science Plan, released in February 1989, together with the 1989 Working Group Report, detail the objectives and strategies of the program. The RIDGE program is divided between the Global Change Program and disciplinary geosciences. The primary objectives of RIDGE relative to disciplinary geosciences are to quantify the generation and transport of molten magma beneath the ridge system and the transformation of the magma into oceanic crust, to understand how volcanic systems sustain life in the presence of liquid water, and to understand the linkages of these biological systems to ore deposits. RIDGE began work in 1991-1992 on several program elements that will continue during the planning period: field work on the East Pacific Rise and the Mid-Atlantic Ridge; developing the capability to detect and respond to ridgecrest events such as earthquakes, eruptions, and hydrothermal plumes; technology and instrument development aimed at enhancing geophysical, geochemical and biological observational capabilities and at establishing long-term observatories; and measurements of thermodynamic and physical properties of relevant materials. Continental Margins The primary goal of this program is to develop an understanding of the physical processes that control the initiation, evolution, and destruction of continental margins. To fulfill these objectives, it is necessary to investigate both deep and shallow structure of continental margins and the origin and effects of margin fluids. The deep crustal studies include: (1) the mechanics of lithospheric deformation, (2) magmatism and mass transfer, and (3) the development of sedimentary basins. The shallow crustal studies include: (1) the processes affecting sediment transfer along and across the margins, (2) the effects of physical, chemical and biological processes on the preserved sedimentary record, and (3) the detailed history of Earth's environment recorded in margin sediments and the relationship of this record to the geophysical character of the margins. Fluid studies include: (1) the role of fluids in controlling geochemical alteration of margin sediments and organic matter, (2) the role of fluids in controlling stress distribution in sedimentary prisms, and (3) the impact of expelled margin fluids on chemical cycling in the oceans. National Academy of Sciences workshops held in 1988 and 1991 outlined the program and focused on the mechanics of crustal deformation. Planning for specific deformation experiments will begin in FY 1992 with the first field work planned for FY 1993. Workshops to define specific objectives for studies of magmatism and sedimentary and fluid components will be held in 1992 and 1993. The program has significant linkages with the Coastal Ocean Processes activity, the Ocean Drilling Program, the Earth System History component of the U.S. Global Change Research Program, and the Continental Dynamics program of the Earth Sciences Division, and will provide the fundamental knowledge for planning and interpreting future ocean drilling on continental margins. Polar Programs The responsibilities of the Division of Polar Programs (DPP) are defined geographically rather than by scientific discipline. Polar Programs funds and manages U.S. research programs in Antarctica and its surrounding ocean and shares responsibility with other NSF Divisions for research in the Arctic. Polar Programs supports research through six science programs: Polar Aeronomy and Astrophysics, Polar Biology and Medicine, Polar Earth Sciences, Polar Ocean and Climate Systems, Glaciology, and Arctic Social Sciences. In addition to global change research, Polar Programs supports a wide array of research projects that take advantage of unique qualities of the polar regions. Some of these are outside the normal scope of the Directorate for Geosciences (e.g., astrophysics and terrestrial and freshwater ecology). Ship-Supported Research In April 1992, the R/V Nathaniel B. Palmer, a 308-ft research vessel with icebreaking capabilities, began service in the U.S. Antarctic Program. This vessel allows an off-season expansion of research into geographical areas previously unavailable to the U.S. scientific community. The ship expands significantly the ability to support sophisticated scientific instrumentation, and introduces improved and larger working spaces, laboratories, communications, and equipment handling capabilities. In conjunction with the R/V Polar Duke, DPP-supported research will include the biological structure and processes of ecosystems on scales ranging from the microenvironment of individual organism to the macroenvironment of populations and communities. Emphases will relate to winter survival strategies, high resolution of multi-year biological dynamics, and nutrient and particulate fluxes. Physical and chemical oceanography will include study of the three-dimensional fluxes of mass, heat, dissolved chemicals and gases, and distributed trace matter, particularly in winter when the formation of sea ice affects the vertical stability of the surface layers. Other research supported will include marine geology and geophysics and sea ice dynamics, including study of the material characteristics of sea ice both at the individual crystal level and its large-scale pattern of freezing, deformation, and melting, which has implications for atmospheric and oceanic climate. Astrophysics Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station is the driest inhabited spot on Earth with the exception of Vostok, a Soviet antarctic station. Since water vapor constitutes the greatest source of noise and opacity for receiving electromagnetic signals from space over the infrared to the millimeter wavelengths of the electromagnetic spectrum, the dryness is of considerable importance to some observers. At certain wavelengths, state-of-the-art detectors operating at the South Pole are limited by detector noise rather than atmospheric noise. For these detectors, the site is as good as a spacecraft. In the radio frequency portion of the spectrum, the site is also quiet, except for controllable local sources. The Science and Technology Center for Astrophysical Research in Antarctica (CARA), which takes advantage of these characteristics, was established in FY 1991. Researchers have expressed great interest in studies of cosmic microwave radiation background anisotropies, but topics such as interstellar molecular cloud composition, star formation, galactic dynamics, and the growth of structure in the universe are also well suited to be investigated from the South Pole. Studies of interstellar molecules and stratospheric molecules have many similarities. Both kinds of measurements can be made with the same apparatus in certain cases. A January 1992 test at South Pole has confirmed that ice at a depth of 800 meters is transparent at distances of tens of meters and full of natural radioactivity. This raises the prospect of using the ice as an enormous particle detector, thus greatly opening up the field of neutrino astronomy. Polar Programs plans an expansion of solar and astrophysical research through ground- and balloon-based research programs from FY 1994-1998. Upper Atmospheric Studies In order to supplement the data-collecting capacity of the permanently manned antarctic stations, Polar Programs is supporting the development of Automatic Geophysical Observatories (AGOs). The unmanned observatories will house and power a variety of instruments and handle the data they collect. Functioning as "satellites on the snow," the unmanned observatories will be particularly well suited for correlative measurements with polar orbiting satellites. They will be capable of storing large amounts of data on site and transmitting low resolution data via satellite to investigators, and will collect data relevant to a number of outstanding problems in upper atmospheric physics. Together with certain of the manned stations, the arrays will be able to provide continuous and full optical coverage of the dark polar cap ionosphere. They will also facilitate studies aimed at understanding auroral morphology and dynamics, ionospheric currents, waves and wave-particle interactions, and energetic particle precipitation effects. Given its value to the broader community of atmospheric scientists, the AGO program is coordinated with the Atmospheric Sciences. Although the AGO program will benefit space physicists initially, such facilities should prove valuable to others as well. The observatories should be adaptable, for example, to the needs of fields such as seismology and atmospheric chemistry. Instrumentation development will be carried out within the time frame of this plan. Earth Sciences in Polar Regions Earth sciences research in polar regions is directed towards an improved understanding of the geologic processes manifested in polar areas that impact Earth's environmental systems. Selected aspects of the geologic structure, composition and evolution of the antarctic continent and adjacent continental margins, of the arctic basin and adjacent continental margins and land masses, and of the sedimentary basins in both polar regions are significant indicators of the Earth's evolution. Determination of polar continental structure and tectonic history is one of several goals of this program. Approaches include exploration and earthquake seismology, structural and regional geology, paleomagnetics, geochronology and the modeling of geophysical processes and ice sheet history. Clarification of the tectonic history of Antarctica and its role in the assembly and breakup of the Gondwanaland supercontinent will require the continuing collaborative effort of continental and marine geophysicists. The continent's crustal structure at selected representative locations needs to be determined, to delineate the microplates and rifts that characterize West Antarctica and to develop a better understanding of the complex structural relationships between East and West Antarctica. The uplift history of the Transantarctic Mountains and its influence on the development and fluctuations of the antarctic ice sheet has global-scale climatic and associated sedimentological implications. In the circumarctic regions, a key objective is the retrieval, analysis and interpretation of proxy paleoclimatic data sets. The Polar Earth Sciences Program also supports basic research into low temperature physical, chemical and geologic processes active at or near the surface. Geophysical studies focus on delineating the characteristics of key crustal elements, especially the continental margins, and on the analysis of seismic data to improve our ability to locate plate boundaries and understand their evolution and geodynamic importance. In FY 1992, a multi-university team of investigators executed the first coordinated geophysical probing of large regions of Antarctica using aerogeophysics. A Twin Otter carrying a magnetometer, gravity meter, altimeters and radars remotely probed the physical make-up of regions in Byrd Basin, the deepest subglacial basin in the world. Ice Dynamics and Ice Coring for Paleoclimatic Record The value of ice coring in the Arctic to obtain climatic and atmospheric records from ice sheets is discussed in the Arctic System Science section of this Long Range Plan (pages 21-23). Complementary efforts have been undertaken in the past in the Antarctic and will be expanded in the future to aid in improving our understanding of global climate change over the past 200,000 years. The goal of studies of ice dynamics is a more complete understanding of the physical processes involved in discharges from large polar ice sheets, the deformation history recorded in ice cores, the coupling of ice streams to floating ice shelves, the surging of glaciers, and the relationship of basal processes to fast glacier flow. The recognition that accelerated glacial discharge could result in rising sea level provides an impetus for studying the physical processes responsible for fast glacier flow. We also need to understand the processes that caused ice sheets to wax and wane in the geologic past in order to interpret the glacial-geologic as well as the climatic record stored in ice and ocean cores. Concern over global climate change and changing sea level calls for a concerted appraisal of the marine ice sheets (those grounded well below sea level). The marine ice sheets possess inherent instability, and their fast flowing internal ice streams have the capacity to disperse their ice rapidly into the surrounding oceans, resulting in ice-sheet "collapse." It needs to be determined whether the atmospheric and oceanographic changes involved in climate warming are coupled to the ice sheets in a way that could cause such collapse. Assessing the future behavior of the ice sheets requires consideration of the coupled ice-atmosphere-ocean-lithosphere system because the ice sheets are active participants in the global climate regime and can influence climate as well as respond to it. Rapid changes recently observed to be occurring in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet indicate possible instability, and spur an urgent effort to understand the coupled system so as to predict its future behavior. Research efforts in ice dynamics are planned to grow significantly through FY 1996. Social Sciences Research in the Arctic Despite its harsh climate and forbidding landscape, the Arctic is home to a variety of indigenous populations with distinctive cultural traditions. Highly adapted to the polar environment and dependent on its natural resources for survival, most arctic societies were isolated from modernizing influences well into the 20th century. The introduction of technological innovations and the large-scale exploitation of resources have wrought wide-ranging changes in both the small-scale communities of the Arctic and the environment in which they subsist. The Arctic thus offers a unique laboratory for the study of human adaptation and the effects of human activity on ecosystems that are particularly sensitive to disturbance, issues relevant to our understanding of the environmental and social effects of long-term climate change. Support for basic research is provided for a wide variety of fields, including anthropology, archaeology, sociology, economics, law, history, political science and education. Interdisciplinary research and comparative studies are essential to the development of a better understanding of the changing nature of human adaptation in the Arctic. Interdisciplinary themes of particular concern are: rapid social change, community viability, and human/environment interactions, including issues relating to subsistence, sustainable development and global change. The Arctic Social Sciences Program, working closely with the social sciences programs in the Directorate for Social, Behavioral and Economic Sciences, was initiated in FY 1991. V. Capital Facilities and Instrumentation Research in the geosciences, particularly field programs, involve airborne campaigns to study atmospheric chemistry and storm phenomena, cruises to sample ocean properties, ocean drilling, global and regional seismic arrays. This range of research activities, often undertaken in remote regions, dictates a major capital investment. Major additions and upgrades to GEO facilities and new instrumentation are required to carry out the research activities described above. An internal survey indicates that the capital equipment need for GEO, including the U.S. Antarctic Program, is roughly $1,200 million from 1991 until the end of the century. For the period FY 1994-1998, major high priority capital equipment needs are: instrumentation for seismic studies and research on the physics and chemistry of earth materials; Replacement and upgrades of aircraft for use in atmospheric sciences programs and the U.S. Antarctic Program; an ice-capable research vessel for use in the Arctic; upgrades to older research vessels and new drilling and logging tools for the Ocean Drilling Program; a new supercomputer for the atmospheric sciences; and construction of a new South Pole Station. Methods for financing such capital needs include: (1) outright purchase in a single fiscal year; (2) costs distributed over several years; (3) long-term leases or use of bonds; (4) increasing matching requirements of grantee/contractor; (5) contributions from private sources, foundations, industry; and (6) use of interagency or international mechanisms for cost-sharing. GEO has used innovative methods to finance its capital equipment requirements. GEO will continue to pursue ways of leveraging funds; however, even with creative financing, the incremental funding required for critical major capital items, such as ships, aircraft, and supercomputers, is often too large for a Division budget. During FY 1994-1998, GEO's ability to support its high priority science programs, such as Global Change (especially ARCSS), the U.S. Weather Research Program, Coastal Ocean Processes, and Continental Dynamics, will be severely hampered unless large capital equipment items are replaced or upgraded. To address this critical problem, GEO plans to establish a phased Facilities and Instrumentation Recapitalization Program. Funds to begin this Program are in the FY 1993 Budget Request. Facilities and Instrumentation Recapitalization Program Five categories of major capital equipment are addressed by GEO's Facilities and Instrumentation Recapitalization Program: aircraft replacement and upgrades, seismic facilities, major earth materials research facilities, ship replacement and upgrades, and a supercomputer. These constitute the highest priority capital equipment requirements for GEO. The phasing of their acquisition will be determined by several factors, including available resources, relative state of need, and occurrence of favorable acquisition opportunities. The Program will be managed at the Directorate level, and allocated in different years to the major capital equipment needs. The capital equipment program will not be used for operations and maintenance costs; these costs will be met by Division base programs. Although GEO will continue to pursue other financing plans, the resources in the new program will result in significant cost savings as the Government will avoid the extra costs incurred by long-term purchase arrangements. Equally important, scientists can plan more effectively knowing that funding for required facilities is in place. Aircraft Replacement and Upgrades A high altitude research aircraft and modernization of existing research-instrumented aircraft are needed to meet GEO's contribution to the Global Tropospheric Chemistry Program (GTCP) and the Role of Clouds, Energy and Water (ROCEW), both global change programs, as well as for research in atmospheric chemistry, climate and climate-coupled systems, and storm-scale meteorology. The NCAR Sabreliner, acquired in 1969, cannot meet these needs and a replacement is planned beginning in FY 1993. Research characteristics requiring such an aircraft are: (1) multi-investigator programs spanning large regions or conducted in remote locations or over the ocean; (2) chemical measurements at high altitudes in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere; (3) high-altitude measurements for verification of satellite or ground-based remote sensors; (4) large payloads consistent with carrying heavy remote-sensing systems; (5) ability to fly in close proximity to strong convection; and (6) high-altitude, high-speed, and long-endurance capabilities for coverage of extended cloud systems. An ideal aircraft would be a mid-size, long-range, high-performance jet capable of carrying 5,000 pounds (with full fuel), with a range of 4,000 nautical miles, endurance greater than nine hours, and the ability to operate at an altitude of approximately 50,000 feet. Seismic Facilities The Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS) program of seismographic facilities, including the Global Seismic Network (GSN) and the Program for Array Seismic Studies of the Continental Lithosphere (PASSCAL) Portable Seismic Array, are necessary to achieve the goals of the Geodynamics, NEHRP, IDNHR, and Continental Dynamics programs and provide basic data bases for detailed studies of the structure of the Earth. The GSN and PASSCAL facilities, begun in 1989, have had extremely successful development phases, but acquisition and deployment of instruments has been slow. Through the GEO Recapitalization Program, acquisition of seismic instrumentation will be completed during FY 1993-1996, with the cooperation of the international community. The GSN will consist of about 100 broadband, digital, wide dynamic range seismic stations with real-time data telemetering capabilities. Utilizing compact microprocessors, the instruments are capable of recording three-component motions from earthquakes over varying bandwidths set by digital filters within a frequency band of 0.001-20 Hz. These characteristics ensure that the records contain all of the amplitude and waveform information essential for analysis of earthquake sources and global-scale structure. A global network of such versatile geophysical observatories will constitute an extremely powerful tool for addressing a large number of fundamental problems. About 25 stations have been installed to date. Plans for FY 1994-1996 include installation of stations at oceanic sites, both island and submarine, in order to achieve the necessary global coverage. Support is also planned for the continued development of a portable array of approximately 600 digital seismographs for use in PASSCAL to complement GSN with high resolution array studies of the interior. About 130 of the portable seismic units have been acquired at this time. The design of three-dimensional imaging experiments that require two-dimensional arrays of sensors on the surface is a fundamental departure from previous seismic experiments which used relatively few instruments in a linear array. Seismic tomography on local and regional scales requires densely packed arrays of detectors to eliminate spatial aliasing at frequencies of interest, thereby permitting undistorted recordings of the entire wave field. Development of the satellite Global Positioning System (GPS) makes it possible to locate seismometer positions in minutes with accuracies of a few meters, thereby enabling very rapid deployment of large arrays in response to emergencies or scientific opportunities. PASSCAL units were deployed within hours after the Loma Prieta, California, earthquake in October 1989. Earth Sciences Synchrotron and Accelerator Mass Spectrometer Synchrotron. Beginning in FY 1994, the GEO Recapitalization Program includes the cost of designing, preparing and installing X-ray beamlines at advanced synchrotron light sources. The earth sciences community has designated this as an extremely high priority. The brilliant, highly parallel X-ray beams made available through various magnetic field deceleration schemes offer tremendous improvements in the characterization of materials at the atomic scale through diffraction and spectroscopy. DOE is planning for the total cost of the new synchrotron storage rings; NSF's investment will be in setting up the beamlines at the storage rings. Accelerator Mass Spectrometer (AMS). Funds will be applied toward acquisition of two new tandem accelerator facilities. These AMS facilities have been identified as high priorities under the PACEM initiative. The geochemical isotope analysis requirements of several of the global change initiatives will add to the demands placed on these facilities. The upgrades are imperative if U.S. scientists are to have reasonable access to AMS for dating and geochemical tracer analysis. Ship Replacement and Upgrades A modern and efficient academic fleet is essential for field programs in the ocean sciences, both for global change studies and disciplinary science programs. The acquisition of more capable ships to replace aging ships in the academic fleet and upgrading and modernizing existing ships to meet research requirements are of high priority for GEO. The highest priority is the acquisition of an ice-capable research ship to work independently in the seasonal ice zones of the Arctic and with the ability to work in the central Arctic Basin with icebreaker support. This ship is a replacement for the Alpha Helix (built in 1966), operated by the University of Alaska for open-ocean studies up to ice edge regions. The Interagency Arctic Research Policy Committee identified limited access to the ice-covered Arctic Ocean and seasonally ice-covered marginal seas as the most severe limitation in arctic oceans research. An arctic research vessel is essential to meet national needs, including the ARCSS global change science program. The U.S. academic fleet lacks a dedicated arctic research vessel. Final design, long lead time equipment purchase, and initiation of construction contracts are scheduled for FY 1993; construction for FY 1994-1995; and full operations in FY 1996. Seven NSF-built ships (Calanus, Columbus Iselin, Oceanus, Wecoma, Endeavor, Cape Hatteras and Pt Sur) are entering the last half of their service life. These ships have provided yeoman service for individual investigator projects. However, without major rehabilitation and upgrading to meet current technological standards, these ships cannot support modern research projects. It is essential for the U.S. to continue to maintain a world-class research fleet to meet science mission requirements. To meet continuing needs and evolving requirements for research at sea, upgrades to the NSF-owned ships will be initiated in FY 1993 and continue through FY 1998. In the late 1990s, NSF will also fund the design of next-generation vessels to replace the oldest intermediate-class ships and coastal vessels. Supercomputer The NCAR supercomputer facility is an essential tool for global change projects supported by GEO, such as TOGA and GTCP. It is now saturated by more than 1000 users from around the country. The past 25 years of progress in the atmospheric sciences have shown that leading-edge computers create possibilities for studies of new phenomena. Creative refinancing allowed NCAR to upgrade the X-MP/48 to a larger Y-MP/8/864 during FY 1990. Future scientific requirements for supercomputing resources have been determined by the atmospheric and ocean sciences communities. These requirements specify the performance and increased memory needs of more than 40 projects now under way. These projects involve the research efforts of NCAR and university scientists, many of whom participate in major national undertakings in climate and global change research. These projects require a supercomputer with up to 400 million words of memory and, in aggregate, would require in excess of 1,000,000 XMP single processor equivalent hours per year. In response to these needs, the GEO Recapitalization Program will provide funds for a next-generation supercomputer. Other Facilities In addition to the major capital items included in the GEO Facilities and Instrumentation Recapitalization Program, other facilities needs and maintenance and operations costs associated with GEO research will be supported as part of disciplinary science programs and as part of larger, coordinated thrusts such as Global Change. High priority facilities and instrumentation needs are: Atmospheric Sciences Polar Cap Observatory (PCO). It is known that the solar wind interaction with Earth's polar cap regions influences the behavior of the entire global structure of our upper atmosphere. Due to the scarcity of observations at the highest latitudes of the globe, the Earth's polar regions currently represent the most conspicuous gap in our understanding. A new upper atmospheric observatory, located within the northern polar cap, will be able to determine the characteristics and variability of the crucial terrestrial parameters, while satellite observations record the variations in the solar wind. Two global change programs -- CEDAR and GEM -- are directly aimed at the study of energy transfer mechanisms in the solar-terrestrial system and will greatly benefit from the availability of the PCO. In addition, the new facility will benefit the international Solar Terrestrial Energy Program (STEP), and many long-term NASA programs and upper atmosphere studies supported by the Division of Polar Programs. Instrumentation and Facility Infrastructure Initiative. Aside from major capital equipment, there are three facility needs in atmospheric sciences: (1) Funds for purchasing of instrumentation small facilities. At present it is nearly impossible for individual investigators or groups at individual institutions to acquire instruments or small facilities in the $200K to $500K range. These instruments are too expensive to be part of a standard research proposal, but they are not intended to be "community facilities." Thus, cutting edge tools, essential to individual or small groups of PIs, often fail to be supported. (2) Funds for development of modest-size instrumentation and facilities for use by the community. These are not large enough to be justified separately as part of a capital equipment pool, but sufficiently expensive that they require community judgement on their desirability. (3) Funds for emergency repairs of existing facilities and instruments. Existing facilities often have unexpected, expensive failures. Furthermore, there is a steady growth in the number of facilities and, thus, more failures are likely to occur. In response to the first two needs, funds will be designated for instrumentation/small facility needs. These funds will be apportioned according to the demonstrated capitalization needs of the various programs based on the recommendations of a committee of program directors and community scientists. To meet the third need, a small amount of funds will be designated for "emergency repair." These funds also will be apportioned according to the needs of the various Atmospheric Sciences programs. Earth Sciences While major capital investment needs for seismic networks, synchrotron radiation sources, and accelerator-based mass spectrometry are included in the GEO Facilities and Instrumentation Recapitalization Program, the Earth Sciences Division will support the operations and maintenance of the facilities providing access to this new instrumentation. In addition, Earth Sciences will continue to support the Rock Magnetics Institute to provide a facility for fundamental research in the magnetic properties of geologic materials, and the University Navstar Consortium to provide technical assistance for geodetic field research using the Global Positioning System. Continental Scientific Drilling. Drilling is the ultimate tool for exploring and verifying the structures, materials, and properties of Earth's subsurface portions. It is an essential component in the solution of many of the most important geological problems. Drilling is an expensive tool, and is therefore used sparingly and as a component of well conceived, comprehensive research plans. Since 1989, NSF has collaborated with USGS and DOE in a very successful multiagency program of shallow and intermediate-depth scientific drilling on land as a complement to the highly successful Ocean Drilling Program. In FY 1994 and succeeding years, scientific opportunities (Katmai, Hawaii) will require drilling capabilities well beyond those available at current funding levels. Ocean Sciences The near-term major capital needs of the Ocean Sciences community are included in the GEO Recapitalization Program. Other facilities support provided by the Ocean Sciences Division, through the global change and disciplinary research programs, are the provision of ships and other shared-use facilities required by NSF-supported scientists. This includes operating and maintaining research ships and submersibles; providing technical support to maintain and operate shared-use shipboard scientific systems; acquisition and development of new instruments for ocean research; and operation of a national Accelerator Mass Spectrometer Center for ocean carbon measurements. Polar Programs R/V Nathaniel B. Palmer. Facilities and operations provide access to Antarctica and life support and sustenance to researchers and support crews. Enhanced support in FY 1994-98 will fund the charter and operation of an ice-breaking research vessel required by NSF-supported scientists to conduct research such as biological oceanography in the Antarctic. The research vessel allows significant extension of antarctic ocean research. The ship's first cruise supported the joint Russian/United States ice camp in the Weddell Sea. Crary Science and Engineering Center. The new science laboratory under construction at McMurdo Station will replace current laboratories and facilitate advanced interdisciplinary studies of the antarctic environment. The first phase of the laboratory was dedicated in November 1991. The final two phases are scheduled for completion in FY 1993. In FY 1994-1998, the Center will continue to develop based on feedback from the scientific users. LC-130 Aircraft. Upgrades to the seven NSF LC-130 aircraft will be completed in FY 1994. The acquisition of new LC-130 aircraft to replace the current seven as they reach the end of their service life is planned to begin by budgeting for the first two in FY 1994 and FY 1996. South Pole Station Development. Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station supports primarily tropospheric and upper atmospheric studies, astronomy, and astrophysics. In addition to deterioration due to long exposure to the harsh environment (the current South Pole Station was built in 1975), the demand for space to conduct research at South Pole Station has been increasing steadily. For example, the new Science and Technology Center for Astrophysical Research in Antarctica (CARA) was established in 1991 to explore and exploit the unique advantages of the South Pole as a site for infrared and submillimeter astronomy. A series of engineering and future science needs studies are being conducted, and decisions are now being made concerning how to incorporate existing elements of the station into an improved science facility. The procurement of a new South Pole Station is expected to begin in FY 1995 or 1996. Before then, construction of berthing and science facilities must occur. During the 1991-1992 field season, 140 people were working at South Pole Station, which provides only marginal facilities for 100 people. Antarctic Safety, Environment, and Health Initiative. Funding responsibility for this initiative was transferred to the Department of Defense in FY 1992 and is expected to remain there in FY 1993 at a level of $14 million. The total package, originally expected to amount to about $175 million over 5 years, included the acquisition of two aircraft. With the deletion of the two aircraft, the package now stands at $85 million of which $50 million is to be funded by DOD. Of the $85 million, over $30 million will be used to improve protection of the environment. As the initiative has developed, it has become apparent that follow-on activities will be required. As a result of policies and procedures developed during the initiative and the signing of the Environmental Protocol to the Antarctic Treaty, antarctic operations have changed significantly. Follow-on activities will include: continued cleanup of old stations; improvements of fire suppression and utilities systems at existing stations; safety renovations for existing buildings; and communications improvements. VI. Education and Human Resources Developing human resources in science and engineering is essential for the U.S. to continue as the world's leader in scientific research and engineering. Our Nation's economic competitiveness, national security, and standard of living depend on an adequate supply of scientifically and technically qualified people. To meet these needs, a strong emphasis on human resources development is required, including expanded efforts to increase participation of underrepresented groups, including women, minorities and persons with disabilities, in science and engineering. GEO is increasing its support for human resources development. Support is provided at various stages in the educational pipeline -- undergraduate, graduate and postdoctoral -- as part of the regular award process and under several special programs, including those for underrepresented groups. During the next five years, GEO support for graduate students and postdoctoral fellows will be primarily through regular research awards. However, GEO continues to provide substantial support for special programs, which include: Research in Undergraduate Institutions (RUI) Minority Research Initiation (MRI) Research Experiences for Undergraduates (REU) Presidential Faculty Fellows (PFF) and NSF Young Investigators (NYI) Faculty Awards for Women (FAW) Career Advancement Awards (CAA) and Research Planning Grants (RPG) for Women Many colleges and universities offer undergraduate majors in geology, but very few undergraduate programs exist in the atmospheric sciences, oceanography, or hydrology. Thus, the latter are dependent on a supply of undergraduates from other disciplines (physics, chemistry, biology, mathematics, engineering) who choose to pursue graduate careers in the geosciences. GEO will increase its efforts during the next five years to attract high school students and undergraduates, and will provide graduate student support through individual investigator awards in the geosciences. In keeping with their fundamental importance, support for education and human resources is planned to increase at the same rate as GEO science and facilities. New programs will be added where and when needed. Undergraduates Programs for undergraduates are expected to grow over the next five years with a special focus on underrepresented groups. GEO maintains a special account (currently $1.25 million) for support of minority undergraduate students, from which the Divisions draw funds for awards for this purpose. Major support for undergraduates will be through the normal grant support mechanisms, as well as through the very successful Research in Undergraduate Institutions (RUI) and Research Experiences for Undergraduates (REU) programs. GEO will demonstrate the excitement and rewards of a career in geosciences. Along these lines, funding will be provided for innovative programs, using institutional facilities and field programs, to attract both college and high school students to careers in the geosciences. Polar Programs has new facilities and field projects to attract college students and younger scholars to research careers in the polar regions. The new Crary Science and Engineering Center at McMurdo Station and the new R/V Nathaniel B. Palmer continue to play important roles in these efforts. The Division of Polar Programs regularly supports REU supplements and sites in both arctic and antarctic projects. These awards complement and expand GEO efforts through the Polar Biology and Medicine, Polar Earth Sciences, Glaciology, and Aeronomy and Astrophysics programs, as well as the Arctic Social Sciences. The Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Divisions will continue to concentrate undergraduate education efforts in REU sites and supplements, with the encouragement of linkages between majority and minority institutions and students; scholarship support for minority students; and upgrading of geoscience facilities and laboratories for undergraduates in science and science education programs. Funding for underrepresented minorities has been augmented through a major grant to the American Geological Institute (AGI) Minority Participation Program. The REU Program has been particularly successful in the Ocean Sciences Division. About ten sites and 100 students are supported annually, with plans to network the principal investigators to exchange information on effective training and recruitment practices. Minority undergraduates and faculty mentors are being supported by the Ocean Sciences Division to attend annual meetings of the American Society for Limnology and Oceanography (ASLO). ASLO provides free registration and a three-year membership to the participants, while the Ocean Sciences Division supports travel and a pre-meeting workshop for the participants. This program has been very successful. In 1992, 45 students and 10 faculty attended the meeting. The Ocean Sciences Division has several ongoing projects aimed at increasing minority participation in marine science. These include planning workshops to network major marine institutions and Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs); support for the Minority Institutions in Marine Sciences Association, which acts as a clearinghouse for minority students and faculty and research opportunities; and projects in Oregon and Alaska to attract Native Americans and Alaskan Natives, respectively. Ocean Sciences is also supporting several HBCU projects either directly or through subcontracts. The Atmospheric Sciences Division supports the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), which provides opportunities for 10-12 undergraduate science majors from ethnic minority groups to work on a specific research project with an NCAR scientist. Graduate Students More graduate students will be supported through individual project awards. As with undergraduates, attempts will be made to attract talented graduate students into the geosciences disciplines through programs involving the use of geosciences facilities and field programs. The global change programs are a particularly strong drawing card for environmentally oriented students; increased efforts will be made to involve graduate students in those exciting field programs. Past successful programs, such as the Global Atmospheric Research Program (GARP), have demonstrated the usefulness of this approach. The Earth Sciences Division has increased opportunities for graduate student thesis and dissertation research by supporting the Geological Society of America's Penrose Program. Also, competitive non-awardees in the NSF Graduate Minority Fellowship Program can apply for graduate student support through their academic department. The Atmospheric Sciences Division plans to increase its efforts in recruiting and training students from the traditional disciplines as well as in supporting those trained in the atmospheric sciences by offering portable two-year fellowships to beginning graduate students. Support under this fellowship program will be based on open competition, and the Division expects to support at least ten graduate student fellows during the initial years of this program. Additional graduate fellowships will be offered by the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The Division of Polar Programs' Arctic Social Sciences Program provides Dissertation Improvement Grants that cover expenses for field work, data management and consultant fees, etc. Awards are for a maximum of two years. Research projects that integrate the social and natural sciences in questions relating to global change are especially encouraged. Dissertation grants have also been awarded to Alaskan Native students applying traditional knowledge to science and science education. Postdoctoral Fellowships GEO does not have a Directorate-wide postdoctoral program. Instead, each GEO Division has developed programs where there is a need to enhance specific research areas, global change programs or general research opportunity. The Ocean Sciences Division funds two postdoctoral programs in areas for which there is an identified need for additional personnel or skills. The Research Fellowships in Marine Biotechnology is a two-year program for postdoctoral fellows and research faculty who want to apply molecular biology techniques to ocean science research. It also aims to attract scientists from outside the ocean disciplines to ocean science research. The Division supports approximately eight scientists per year. The Postdoctoral Program in Ocean Modeling is a two-year program sponsored by the Ocean Sciences Division and the Office of Naval Research, and administered by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research. The program stresses training and research to create the next generation of broadly trained ocean modelers. A steady state of 12 postdoctoral fellows a year is envisaged. As part of its increased efforts to recruit and train scientists, the Atmospheric Sciences Division will offer two-year postdoctoral fellowships, based on open competition. The Division expects to support at least five postdoctoral fellows during the initial years of the program. An additional 10-12 postdoctoral fellowships will be offered by NCAR. The Earth Sciences Division's Postdoctoral Program, established in FY 1991, provides direct support to exceptional young scientists for two years. Emphasis will be placed on young scientists pursuing research in global change areas -- Geologic Record of Global Change, Continental Hydrological Processes, and Geodynamics. Presidential Faculty Fellows (PFF) and NSF Young Investigators (NYI) The distribution of NYI awards, which are jointly supported by industry and foundations, is uneven within GEO, with most nominations and awards in the earth sciences. Efforts are being made to stabilize the number of new GEO NYI awards at ten per year, with a more even distribution across Divisions, if the NSF goal remains at its current level. GEO made one PFF award in FY 1992. Career Advancement Awards and Research Planning Grants for Women As the number of Ph.D.s awarded to women in the geosciences has increased, so has the number of GEO awards to female principal investigators. There are indications, however, that this trend may have peaked, as it has in other disciplines, and new strategies for recruitment, retention and advancement of women in geosciences will be necessary in the future. GEO will continue to encourage the Career Advancement Awards and Research Planning Grants as it looks for new ways to ensure significant participation of women. Faculty Awards for Women (FAW). Beginning in FY 1991, NSF instituted an honorific award program for tenured women in higher education who are not yet full professors. Eligibility in the program may be expanded in future years so that more women in the geosciences, especially those without tenure and without permanent tenure-track appointments to research institutions, may be able to apply. With the aim of recognition for outstanding scientists and their retention in research careers, these awards will also identify highly visible women scientists on campus who serve as role models and who advise undergraduate and graduate students on careers in the geosciences. Pre-College It is often stated that inadequate interest/education in science is the fault of pre-college education, and that teachers are often ill-prepared to deal with the subject. At NSF, primary responsibility for dealing with pre-college education in science and engineering lies with the Directorate for Education and Human Resources (EHR). GEO plans to contribute to pre-college scientific education by working with EHR and the professional societies to further teacher education. For young students, the geosciences have exciting aspects and the potential for making major contributions to society. As past and potential environmental changes become realities in the minds of politicians, economists, and the general public, GEO's role in this arena may change from one of sparking the interest to one of nurturing it. The Earth Sciences Division will encourage and support, in conjunction with EHR, foundations and professional societies, the training and continuing education of K-12 science teachers, the development of geoscience material throughout the K-12 curriculum, and the support of opportunities for students to experience earth science activity directly through data collecting and synthesis, field trips, and visits to major facilities where the work of science is in progress. The Division of Polar Programs has enthusiastically supported the Young Scholars Program and has sponsored as many as four outstanding students in antarctic studies for the past three years. The program provides students a unique opportunity to participate in a research project with scientists in a variety of scientific areas in the polar regions. Reports Supporting the Long Range Plan Global Change TOGA: A Review of Progress and Future Opportunities. National Research Council, National Academy Press, 1990. Scientific Plan for the TOGA Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment. World Climate Research Programme Series No. 3 Addendum, January 1990. U.S. WOCE Planning and Implementation Reports. A series of reports produced by the U.S. WOCE Office, Texas A&M University. GEWEX Planning Reports. A series of reports produced by the World Climate Research Programme of the World Meteorological Organization and the International Council of Scientific Unions. U.S. JGOFS Planning and Implementation Reports. A series of reports produced by the Scientific Committee for Oceanic Research of the International Council of Scientific Unions. The International Global Atmospheric Chemistry (IGAC) Programme. A Core Project of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme. IGAC Steering Committee, 1989. Terrestrial Biosphere Exchange with Global Atmospheric Chemistry. Terrestrial Biosphere Perspective of the IGAC Project. IGBP Report No. 13, Stockholm, 1990. U.S. GLOBEC Planning and Implementation Reports. A series of reports produced by Joint Oceanographic Institutions, Inc. Advisory Panel Report on Earth System History. Panel convened by National Science Foundation, Division of Ocean Sciences, July 1990. Report produced by Joint Oceanographic Institutions, Inc., September 1991. PAGES - Past Global Changes: Proposed Implementation Plans for Research Activities. Report No. 19, International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) of the International Council of Scientific Unions, Stockholm, 1992. The Mid-Oceanic Ridge: A Dynamic Global System. National Research Council, National Academy Press, 1988. RIDGE: Initial Science Plan. RIDGE Planning Office, February 1989. Radiative Inputs of the Sun to Earth: A Research Plan for the 1990s on Solar Irradiance Variation. SunRISE Science Steering Committee, February 1990. Coupling Energetics, and Dynamics of Atmosphere Regions (CEDAR): Observations of the Coupled Atmospheric Regions. Volume I: Overview. CEDAR Science Steering Committee, April 1986. Geospace Environment Modeling (GEM). GEM Science Steering Committee, University of Washington, Seattle, May 1988. Arctic System Science: Ocean-Atmosphere-Ice Interactions. Report of an NSF-sponsored Workshop held in March 1990. Produced by Joint Oceanographic Institutions, Inc., December 1990. Arctic System Science: Land-Atmosphere-Ice Interactions. Report of an NSF-sponsored Workshop held in February 1990. Produced by the Arctic Research Consortium of the U.S., September 1991. Arctic System Science: Land-Atmosphere-Ice Interactions Science Plan. Produced by the Arctic Research Consortium of the U.S., November 1991. The Role of the Polar Regions in Global Change. Scientific Committee for Antarctic Research, 1991. The UCAR Climate System Modeling Initiative: Report of the First CSMP Workshop. University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, 1989. Solving the Global Change Puzzle: A U.S. Strategy for Managing Data and Information. National Research Council, National Academy Press, 1991. Recommendations from an Interdisciplinary Forum on Data Management for Global Change. Interagency Working Group on Data Management for Global Change, 1990. The U.S. Global Change Data and Information Management Program Plan. A report by the Committee on Earth and Environmental Sciences, in press. Our Changing Planet: The FY 1991 Research Plan. A Report of the Committee on Earth and Environmental Sciences, October 1990. Our Changing Planet: The FY 1993 U.S. Global Change Research Program. A Report of the Committee on Earth and Environmental Sciences. A Supplement to the U.S. President's Fiscal Year 1993 Budget. The International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme: A Study of Global Change. The Initial Core Projects. Report No. 12, IGBP, Stockholm, 1990. Research Strategies for the U.S. Global Change Research Program. National Research Council, National Academy Press, 1990. Atmospheric Sciences The Atmospheric Sciences: A Vision for 1989-1994. Report of the NSF-UCAR Long-Range Planning Committee, July 1987. Facilities for Atmospheric Research. National Center for Atmospheric Research, 1989. Advancing the Understanding and Forecasting of Mesoscale Weather in the United States. National Research Council, National Academy Press, 1990. Solar-Terrestrial Energy Program 1990-1995: Initial Research Projects. International Council of Scientific Unions/SCOSTEP, STEP Steering Committee, April 1990. Prospects for Extending the Range of Prediction of the Global Atmosphere. National Research Council, National Academy Press, 1991. A Polar Cap Observatory. The Next Step in Upper Atmospheric Science. Prepared for the NSF Division of Atmospheric Sciences, 1991. Predicting Our Weather: A Strategic Plan for the U.S. Weather Research Program. A report by the Subcommittee on Atmospheric Research of the Committee on Earth and Environmental Sciences, 1992. Coastal Meteorology. National Research Council, National Academy Press, 1992. Earth Sciences Geodetic Monitoring of Tectonic Deformation--Toward a Strategy. National Research Council, National Academy Press, 1981. Seismological Studies of the Continental Lithosphere. National Research Council, National Academy Press, 1984. Groundwater Contamination. Studies in Geophysics. National Research Council, National Academy Press, 1984. Active Tectonics. Studies of Geophysics. National Research Council, National Academy Press, 1986. Current Problems in Geodesy. National Research Council, National Academy Press, 1987. Earth Materials Research. Report of a Workshop on Physics and Chemistry of Earth Materials. National Research Council, National Academy Press, 1987. A Unified Theory of Planet Earth. A Strategic Overview and Long Range Plan for the Division of Earth Sciences of the National Science Foundation. The Advisory Committee for Earth Sciences, November 1988. Background Papers for the Workshop on Continental Margins: Evolution of Passive Continental Margins and Active Marginal Processes. National Research Council, National Academy Press, 1988. The Role of Continental Scientific Drilling in Modern Earth Sciences--Scientific Rationale and Plan for the 1990s. The Workshop on Continental Scientific Drilling, Stanford University, August 1988. Frontiers in Mineral Physics. Report of the Mineral Physics Committee of the American Geophysical Union. Lake Arrowhead, CA, September 1988. Space Science in the Twenty-First Century. Imperatives for the Decades 1995 to 2015. Mission to Planet Earth. National Research Council, National Academy Press, 1988. Reducing Disasters' Toll. The United States Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction. National Research Council, National Academy Press, 1989. Facilities for Earth Materials Research. National Research Council, National Academy Press, 1990. The Role of Fluids in Crustal Processes. Studies on Geophysics. National Research Council, National Academy Press, 1990. Sea-Level Change. Studies in Geophysics. National Research Council, National Academy Press, 1990. International Global Network of Fiducial Stations: Scientific Implementation Issues. National Research Council, National Academy Press, 1991. Opportunities on the Hydrologic Sciences. National Research Council, National Academy Press, 1991. National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program: Five-Year Plan for 1992-1996. Federal Emergency Management Agency, U.S. Geological Survey, NSF, and National Institute of Standards and Technology, September 1991. A National Program for Research in Continental Dynamics. The Workshop on Future Research Directions in Continental Dynamics. DOSECC Incorporated; the IRIS Consortium, June 1992. A Science Plan for Cooperative Studies of the Earth's Deep Interior (CSEDI). Draft prepared by the ad hoc US CSEDI Committee, June 1992. Ocean Sciences A Unified Plan for Ocean Science. A Long-Range Plan for the Division of Ocean Sciences of the National Science Foundation. Advisory Committee for Ocean Sciences, August 1987. Margins: A Research Initiative for Interdisciplinary Studies of Processes Attending Lithospheric Extension and Convergence. National Research Council, National Academy Press, 1989. Coastal Ocean Processes: A Science Prospectus. Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, April 1992. UNOLS Fleet Improvement Plan. University National Oceanographic Laboratory System, May 1990. Initiative for the Accelerated Transfer of Biotechnology to the Ocean Sciences. Produced by Joint Oceanographic Institutions, Inc., July 1990. Biotechnology for the 21st Century. A Report by the FCCSET Committee on Life Sciences and Health, February 1992. Report of a Workshop on Molecular Marine Biology and Marine Biotechnology Applied to Oceanic Problems. National Research Council, National Academy Press, in press. Ocean Drilling Program Long Range Plan: 1989-2002. Joint Oceanographic Institutions, Inc., May 1990. InterRidge [International Mid Oceanic Ridge Research Program] Draft Program Plan, InterRidge Coordinating Office, 1992. Polar Programs The Role of the NSF in Polar Regions. A report to the National Science Foundation. Committee on the NSF Role in the Polar Regions, National Science Board, NSB 87-128, 1987. Arctic Environmental Data Workshop Report. Workshop sponsored by NOAA, USGS, NSF, and NASA, Boulder, CO, March 1988. A Long-Range Science Plan for the Division of Polar Programs. Divisional Advisory Committee for Polar Programs, April 1990. Arctic Research of the United States. U.S. Arctic Research Plan Second Biennial Revision: 1992-1993. Vol. 5, Spring 1991. Arctic Environmental Protection Strategy. International Agreement, 1991. Antarctic Journal of the United States. Published 5 times per year by NSF to provide information about the science and related programs of the U.S. Antarctic Program. U.S. Antarctic Research Report to SCAR. National Academy of Sciences, U.S. National Committee for Antarctic Research, No. 33, 1991. Acronyms ACAS Advisory Committee for Atmospheric Sciences ACC Abrupt Climate Change AGI American Geological Institute AGO Automatic Geophysical Observatory AMAP Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program AMS Accelerator Mass Spectrometer ARCSS Arctic System Science ASLO American Society for Limnology and Oceanography CAA Career Advancement Awards CARA Center for Astrophysical Research in Antarctica CEDAR Coupling, Energetics and Dynamics of Atmospheric Regions CEES Committee on Earth and Environmental Sciences CHP Continental Hydrologic Processes CMAP Climate Modeling, Analysis and Prediction COARE Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Research Experiment CoOP Coastal Ocean Processes CSDP Continental Scientific Drilling Project DOD Department of Defense DOE Department of Energy EHR Directorate for Education and Human Resources EPA Environmental Protection Agency FAW Faculty Awards for Women FCCSET Federal Coordinating Council for Science, Engineering and Technology GARP Global Atmospheric Research Program GCM General Circulation Model GEM Geospace Environmental Modeling GEO Directorate for Geosciences GEWEX Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment GISP2 Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 GLOBEC Global Ocean Ecosystems Dynamics GPS Global Positioning System GRGC Geologic Record of Global Change GSN Global Seismic Network GTCP Global Tropospheric Chemistry Program HBCU Historically Black Colleges and Universities IARPC Interagency Arctic Research Policy Committee ICSU International Council of Scientific Unions IDNHR International Decade of Natural Hazard Reduction IGAC International Global Atmospheric Chemistry Programme IGBP International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme IRIS Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology JGOFS Joint Global Ocean Flux Study LMER Land Margin Ecosystems Research LTER Long-Term Ecological Research MESH Marine Aspects of Earth System History MRI Minority Research Initiation NAS National Academy of Sciences NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration NCAR National Center for Atmospheric Research NEHRP National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program NEXRAD Next Generation Radar NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NRC National Research Council NRL Naval Research Laboratory NSF National Science Foundation NYI NSF Young Investigators ODP Ocean Drilling Program OMB Office of Management and Budget ONR Office of Naval Research PACEM Physics and Chemistry of Earth Materials PAGES Past Global Changes PALE Paleoclimates from Arctic Lakes and Estuaries PASSCAL Program for Array Seismic Studies of the Continental Lithosphere PCO Polar Cap Observatory PFF Presidential Faculty Fellows REU Research Experiences for Undergraduates RIDGE Ridge Interdisciplinary Global Experiment ROCEW Role of Clouds, Energy and Water RPG Research Planning Grants for Women RUI Research in Undergraduate Institutions SEDI Structure of the Earth's Deep Interior STEP Solar Terrestrial Energy Program STORM Storm-scale Operational and Research Meteorology SunRISE Radiative Inputs of the Sun to the Earth TOGA Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere UNAVCO University NAVSTAR Consortium UNIDATA University Data System USGS U.S. Geological Survey (Department of the Interior) U.S.JGOFS U.S. Joint Global Ocean Flux Study UV Ultraviolet WOCE World Ocean Circulation Experiment By advancing scientific knowledge of Earth's environment, GEO contributes to the Nation's need to understand, predict, and respond to environmental events and changes, and to use Earth's resources wisely. Maintaining, upgrading and replacing critical multi-user equipment is a high priority for GEO during the period FY 1994-1998, to ensure excellence in research and safety of research operations. GEO recognizes that to conduct disciplinary research and interdisciplinary global and regional science programs, it must expand its efforts to ensure that new researchers enter the geosciences. GEO Environmental Research Emphases: Global Change Hydrological Sciences U.S. Weather Research Program Coastal Ocean Processes Multidisciplinary Research on the Environment Following a highly successful field program in the North Atlantic in 1989-1990, JGOFS is now beginning its two-year Equatorial Pacific Process Study. GEO Global Change Programs Climate and Hydrologic Systems World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA) Role of Clouds, Energy and Water (ROCEW) Continental Hydrologic Processes (CHP) Biogeochemical Dynamics Global Tropospheric Chemistry Program (GTCP) U.S. Joint Global Ocean Flux Study (U.S. JGOFS) Ecological Systems and Dynamics Global Ocean Ecosystems Dynamics (GLOBEC) Land-Margin Ecosystems Research (LMER) Antarctic Ecosystems Ozone Depletion/UV Effects Earth System History Abrupt Climate Change (ACC) Geologic Record of Global Change (GRGC) Marine Aspects of Earth System History (MESH) Solid Earth Processes Geodynamics Ridge Interdisciplinary Global Experiments (RIDGE) Solar Influences Coupling, Energetics and Dynamics of Atmospheric Regions (CEDAR) Geospace Environmental Modeling (GEM) Radiative Inputs of the Sun to the Earth (SunRISE) Three Global Change programs apply to more than one science element: Arctic System Science (ARCSS) Climate Modeling, Analysis and Prediction (CMAP) Geosystems Databases In the context of future climate changes, GLOBEC will focus on how changes in ocean physics affect animal population dynamics, community composition, and the stability of ocean ecosystems. The GEO Earth System History Program includes coordinated programs from all four GEO Divisions and concentrates on understanding the past behavior of critical components of the coupled earth-ocean-atmosphere system. The objective of the Geologic Record of Global Change is to use the wide variety of geological records as proxies to interpret and understand the interactive processes that affect the time variability of past environmental and climate changes. The third year of field work in FY 1991 was highly successful. Investigators employing new U.S. ice-core drill technology reached a depth of 1,510 meters, which will provide 9,000 years of climatic history. In 1993, the Division of Earth Sciences plans to begin a new program in Hydrologic Sciences aimed at fundamental scientific understanding of the Earth's hydrologic systems. As more of the Nation's population shifts toward coastal regions, pressures on the coastal margins continue to increase, endangering living resources, habitats, natural protective structures and, in turn, human populations. Multidisciplinary Research Priorities: Arctic Environmental Research Environmental Geochemistry Land-Use Geology Sensitive Coastal Ecosystems Integrated Regional Modeling Focused programs such as Global Change must be accompanied by support for the scientific opportunities emerging in broadly based research programs. Understanding the deep interior of the Earth is the key to explaining critically important phenomena such as the geomagnetic field, the motion of tectonic plates, and the origin of volcanism, mantle plumes and deep-seated earthquakes. In April 1992, the R/V Nathaniel B. Palmer, a 308-ft research vessel with icebreaking capabilities, began service in the U.S. Antarctic Program. GEO Facilities and Instrumentation Recapitalization Program Aircraft replacement and upgrades, including a high altitude research aircraft and modernization of existing equipment. Acquisition and installation of seismographic facilities, including the Global Seismic Network and PASSCAL Portable Seismic Array. Ship replacement and upgrade, including an ice-capable ship and refitting six existing research vessels. Expansion of computational capabilities for global atmospheric/ocean/climate modeling and simulation through the acquisition of a supercomputer. Acquisition of synchrotron and accelerator mass spectrometer facilities for the earth sciences community. Through the GEO Facilities and Instrumentation Recapitalization Program, the GSN and PASSCAL facilities, begun in 1989, are planned to be completed during FY 1993-1996, with the cooperation of international partners. The acquisition of more capable ships for the academic fleet and upgrading existing ships is essential. Of the highest priority is the acquisition of an ice-capable ship for work in the Arctic. Arctic REU Site Polar Programs has supported an REU site on the Juneau Ice Field, Alaska, for five years. Fifty undergraduates from 44 different institutions participate in projects including bedrock mapping, glacier mass balance, glacio-hydrology and meteorology, and seismic, gravity and ice radar studies. Fort Valley/University of Oklahoma Joint Project This is a dual degree program for qualified minority students, supported by GEO, DOE, oil companies and others. Students receive tuition and expenses to study 3 years at Fort Valley and two years at U. of Oklahoma, receiving a B.S. in math and science and a B.S. in geosciences. Many students are recruited from this program by the cooperating oil companies. GEO maintains a special account (currently $1.25 million) for support of minority undergraduate students, from which the four Divisions draw funds for awards for this purpose. Minority undergraduates and faculty mentors are being supported by the Ocean Sciences Division to attend annual meetings of the American Society for Limnology and Oceanography. In 1992, 45 students and 10 faculty attended the meeting. CEDAR in EHR The CEDAR program, supported by the Atmospheric Sciences, provides an excellent example of promoting student participation. At the June 1991 CEDAR workshop, 117 students received free registration and travel expenses. The meeting was augmented with tutorial lectures and short courses. CEDAR also sponsors postdoctoral awards.