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News Release 07-184

New Results Presented at Conference: Climate Change, Weather and Ecosystems; Urban Air Quality; Earth Observing Systems; Seafloor Drilling

National Science Foundation research featured at American Geophysical Union fall meeting, December 10-14, 2007

Photo of automobiles stuck on a highway during a snow storm.

Climate change may influence the tracks of winter storms in North America.


December 7, 2007

This material is available primarily for archival purposes. Telephone numbers or other contact information may be out of date; please see current contact information at media contacts.

The National Science Foundation (NSF) supports scientific studies in the geosciences, biological sciences and other fields highlighted at the fall meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU) in San Francisco, Dec. 10-14, 2007.

Below are AGU town hall meetings, press conferences and scientific talks and posters that feature NSF-funded research.

TOWN HALL MEETINGS

Tuesday, 11 December
  
1730hIntegrated Ocean Drilling Program: Opportunities and Challenges
Parc 55 Hotel, 55 Cyril Magnin Street
  
Thursday, 13 December
  
1900hEarthScope: Planning, Products and the Public
Moscone West, Room 3003
1930hGeomorphology and Land-Use Dynamics at NSF
Moscone West, Room 3002
1930hGEO Vision: Updating GEO 2000, a Long-Range Plan for NSF Geosciences
Moscone West, Room 3001
1930hOcean Observatories Initiative: Advanced Planning and Opportunities
Moscone West, Room 3007
1930h

Group on Earth Observations (GEO): Outcomes from the 2007 GEO Ministerial Summit and USGEO Initiatives
Moscone West, Room 3005
Interagency briefing including representatives from NSF, NOAA, NASA, USGS on outcomes from the November 2007, GEO Ministerial Summit in Cape Town, South Africa, and on future USGEO initiatives. The international Group on Earth Observations involves 72 countries, the European Commission and 46 organizations working together to develop a Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS). NSF earth-observing systems like the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON), a land-based, continent-wide network of ecological observatories, will be included in the briefing.

PRESS CONFERENCES

All press conferences take place in the Press Conference Room (2010 Moscone West).

Monday, 10 December
  
1000h

Climate impacts on wildfire intensity

Where, how and why do wildfires burn severely? Fire, climate and vegetation dynamics are linked in forest and rangeland ecosystems. Drought-stressed vegetation results in more dead fuels and lower fuel moistures that can result in more intense fires. Drought-stressed vegetation is also more vulnerable to attack and more likely to die from bark beetles and other forest insect pests, which in turn creates yet more dry fuel for severe wildfires. The abundance, type and distribution of fuel for fires is changing rapidly.

Participants:
Penelope Morgan: Department of Forest Resources, University of Idaho, Moscow, Idaho, USA
Colin Hardy: Fire, Fuel, and Smoke Science Program, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Missoula, Montana, USA
Eric Kasischke: Department of Geography, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, USA

Related Sessions: B11D/B13E/B14C

  
1300h

Urban air quality

Advances in real-time and near real-time air pollutant measurement technology and improved air quality models are allowing scientists to better understand the interplay between pollutant emission sources and atmospheric processes that lead to serious air pollution, and to design more effective air quality management practices. Special sessions on urban air quality highlight innovative field measurement programs in Beijing, Mexico City and Houston. These programs have yielded important insights into the impacts of both primary (directly emitted) pollutant sources and atmospheric chemistry processes that produce secondary pollutants.

Participants:
Luisa Molina: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA; Molina Center for Energy and the Environment (MCE2), La Jolla, California, USA
Tong Zhu: Peking University, Beijing, China
Scott Herndon: Aerodyne Research, Inc., Billerica, Massachusetts, USA
David Parrish: NOAA Earth Systems Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado, USA

Session: Session A11D

  
Tuesday, 11 December
  
1300h

Snowpack decline signals need to act

The hydrology of the western U.S. has been changing over the last 50 years. Research presented in this session attributes these hydrological changes to climate alterations caused by greenhouse gases. Several computer models have simulated the changes remarkably well, scientists say. These same models predict a future crisis in water supply, agriculture and the environment due to greenhouse gases--impacts which it may be too late to avoid.

Participants:
Tim Barnett: Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California at San Diego, La Jolla, California, USA
Ben Santer: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California, USA

Session: GC24A

  
1500h

High-elevation climate change and lower elevation impacts

New data from Glacier National Park, Montana, show that model predictions from as recently as the 1990s proved overly conservative. This includes glacial retreat rates and cascading effects on high-elevation ecological systems, including critical spawning areas for threatened bull trout. In Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, interactions between recent temperature trends, increases in atmospheric nitrogen deposition and precipitation portend significant regime shifts in alpine ecosystems. Desert dust storms in the southwestern U.S affect the duration of snowpack in the Rockies. Historical analyses of the effects of dust on snowpack show effects starting in the late 1800s, coinciding with changes in land use in the southwest, increasing dust amounts by a factor of five compared to the last 5,000 years. These effects increased dramatically over the course of the 20th and early 21st centuries.

Participants:
Thomas Painter: Department of Geography, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah, USA
Daniel Fagre: Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Glacier National Park, Montana, USA
Jill Baron: Fort Collins Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA

Sessions: GC31C/GC32A/GC33B/GC41A

  
Wednesday, 12 December
  
1300h

Seafloor drilling reveals mechanics of earthquakes, tsunamis

Chikyu, the world's largest research drilling vessel, in operation for the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program for the first time, has completed the initial 8-week leg of the Nankai Trough Seismogenic Zone Experiment (NanTroSEIZE). This research program, to continue until 2012, has begun drilling into an underwater earthquake zone off the southwest coast of Japan to study fault mechanics. Preliminary results include data gathered from six sites where scientists will eventually build ocean-bottom observatories. Geophysical logs and downhole measurements were made to determine the properties of the rocks surrounding each borehole.

Participants:
Harold Tobin: Co-chief Scientist of IODP Expedition 314; University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin, USA
Moe Kyaw Thu: Expedition Staff Scientist, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science & Technology (JAMSTEC), Tokyo, Japan
Demian Saffer: NanTroSeIZE specialty coordinator; Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, USA
J. Casey Moore: University of California - Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, USA

Sessions: T51E/T52A/T53A

  
Thursday, 13 December
  
0900h

Climate tipping points: Are we there yet?

Abrupt changes in climate are an established phenomenon in Earth's history. There is growing concern, however, that our planet may be at a "tipping point" of dramatic climate change due to human influences. This briefing will present the latest results on climate "tipping points," as well as potential impacts on three key regions of the globe. Hansen discusses the "unrealized" global warming of Earth's climate system and the resulting need for urgent action to cut emissions beyond carbon dioxide. Alley presents the possibility that the sustained warming of a few decades could produce major ice sheet losses that would last centuries. Webster reports on societal tipping points along three heavily populated Asian river basins. Comiso states that with this year's large Arctic sea ice decline, the tipping point may be here.

Participants:
Richard Alley: Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, USA
Josefino Comiso: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA
James Hansen: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies; Columbia University, New York, New York, USA
Peter Webster: Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia, USA

Session: GC44A

CONFERENCE TALKS AND POSTERS

Tuesday, December 11
  
0800h

First Analyses of the Snowpack and Climate Change in the Upper Colorado River Basin

This poster presentation focuses on preliminary analyses of snowpack in the Rocky Mountains and how climate change will affect the availability of fresh water for people who depend upon the Colorado River. The analyses are conducted through a new research initiative, the North American Regional Climate Change Program (NARCCAP), which uses high-resolution computer models to study climate change in vulnerable areas of North America. The goal of NARCCAP is to zoom in on specific regions, thereby helping society prepare for the impacts of a changing climate.

Nadine Salzmann, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Poster Session: GC21A-0126
Location: Moscone South, Hall B

  
1645h

Winter Storm Track Analyses: The Influence of Current and Future Climate

Computer model analyses using the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) 3 indicate that strong winter storms are likely to follow different tracks this century because of climate change. If society continues a business approach to emitting greenhouse gases, preliminary research findings show that the U.S. west coast is likely to see an increase in powerful winter storms, whereas Alaska will see a decrease. Atlantic storms are likely to shift north, with an increase in storm frequency from the Great Lakes to Quebec and a decrease along the U.S. East Coast.

Haiyan Teng, National Center for Atmospheric Research,
Session: A24A-05
Location: Moscone West, Room 2004

  
1745h

The Role of the Nitrogen Cycle in the Climate System

Scientists are stepping up research into the role of nitrogen in the climate system, and are beginning to incorporate the nitrogen cycle in computer models. This talk will preview new directions in nitrogen research. Nitrogen has a direct impact on climate change because it both affects the ability of plants to absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and influences atmospheric methane concentrations. Nitrogen also has implications for air quality because nitric oxide is a necessary precursor to ozone formation.

Elisabeth Holland, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Session: B24A-08
Location: Moscone West, Room 3006

  
Wednesday, December 12
  
1120h

Modeling Permafrost and Permafrost-related Climate Change Feedbacks

An important question for climate scientists is the likely impact of climate change on permafrost, the perpetually frozen soil in higher latitudes. Changes to permafrost can have significant impacts on Arctic ecology, hydrology and biogeochemical cycling. New computer modeling shows that a more detailed representation of soil properties affects predictions of near-surface permafrost degradation. Revised 21st Century soil temperature projections indicate substantial and widespread warming, raising concerns that previously locked-up soil carbon could be released as carbon dioxide or methane, thus exacerbating global warming.

David Lawrence, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Session: C32A-05
Location: Moscone West, Room 3006

  
1150h

Acceleration of the Air Circulation Between Tropics and High Latitudes

New computer modeling demonstrates that the buildup in greenhouse gases is accelerating the movement of air in the stratosphere through a change in stratospheric "Brewer-Dobson" circulation, which moves air between the tropics and the high latitudes. The research shows the extent to which climate change is affecting the entire Earth system.

Natalia Calvo, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Session: A32C-07
Location: Moscone West, Room 2004

  
Thursday, December 13
  
1340h

Seeing the Aurora Borealis with New "Eyes": Advances in High-Latitude Incoherent Scatter Radar
The successful deployment of the Poker Flat Incoherent Scatter Radar (PFISR) near Fairbanks, Alaska, has opened new doors for ionospheric and magnetospheric research at high latitudes. PFISR is the first high-latitude incoherent scatter radar, as it's termed by atmospheric scientists, with technological advances allowing for remote and continuous operations. These advances provide a new capability for ionospheric research, enable long-term investigations of ionospheric climatology, and help resolve questions about the aurora borealis.

Josh Semeter, Boston University
Session: SA34A
Location: Moscone South Room 308 

-NSF-

Media Contacts
Cheryl Dybas, NSF, (703) 292-7734, email: cdybas@nsf.gov

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