| NSF Org: |
DEB Division Of Environmental Biology |
| Recipient: |
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| Initial Amendment Date: | May 9, 2016 |
| Latest Amendment Date: | May 9, 2016 |
| Award Number: | 1640698 |
| Award Instrument: | Standard Grant |
| Program Manager: |
Samuel Scheiner
DEB Division Of Environmental Biology BIO Directorate for Biological Sciences |
| Start Date: | May 1, 2016 |
| End Date: | April 30, 2017 (Estimated) |
| Total Intended Award Amount: | $196,921.00 |
| Total Awarded Amount to Date: | $196,921.00 |
| Funds Obligated to Date: |
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| History of Investigator: |
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| Recipient Sponsored Research Office: |
201 DOWMAN DR NE ATLANTA GA US 30322-1061 (404)727-2503 |
| Sponsor Congressional District: |
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| Primary Place of Performance: |
1599 Clifton Road, 4th Floor Atlanta GA US 30322-4250 |
| Primary Place of
Performance Congressional District: |
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| Unique Entity Identifier (UEI): |
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| Parent UEI: |
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| NSF Program(s): | Cross-BIO Activities |
| Primary Program Source: |
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| Program Reference Code(s): |
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| Program Element Code(s): |
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| Award Agency Code: | 4900 |
| Fund Agency Code: | 4900 |
| Assistance Listing Number(s): | 47.074 |
ABSTRACT
In 2015 and 2016, the Zika virus outbreak in Brazil and the Americas prompted the World Health Organization to declare a public health emergency. Zika virus is predominantly transmitted by mosquitos, including urban dwelling species whose range extends far into North America. Understanding why certain areas within a city have high virus transmission, aka "hot spots", as well as identifying effective methods to reduce this virus transmission is a high priority for the security and well being of people of the United States. This study utilizes highly detailed surveillance data from Mexico and Brazil to understand how Zika virus hot-spots compare to that of dengue and chikungunya viruses, two similar mosquito-borne viruses. Results from this project will be relevant to the Zika public health emergency, and the researchers have set in place mechanisms to share quality-assured interim and final data as rapidly and widely as possible, including with public health and research communities.
In partnership with Ministries of Health from Mexico and Brazil, this multidisciplinary research team will leverage geographically linked epidemiological and entomological datasets to construct and validate a spatially explicit agent based model. While Zika virus has not yet impacted communities in Acapulco or Merida, the two model cities in Mexico, current predictions anticipate its arrival in the summer of 2016. The constructed model will not only characterize areas of high transmission, but it will be used to compare the impacts of various spatially targeted intervention strategies on viral transmission. The project outcomes will provide specific information on the likelihood of Zika virus establishment, the epidemic size of Zika in these modeled areas, as well as how each intervention will reduce the transmission potential of Zika. The proposed work will not only benefit the three model cities in Mexico and Brazil, but it will provide generalizable information on risk factors for urban hot spots, and predictive information vector control best practices for combating Zika, dengue and chikungunya viruses.
PUBLICATIONS PRODUCED AS A RESULT OF THIS RESEARCH
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PROJECT OUTCOMES REPORT
Disclaimer
This Project Outcomes Report for the General Public is displayed verbatim as submitted by the Principal Investigator (PI) for this award. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this Report are those of the PI and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation; NSF has not approved or endorsed its content.
Our central hypothesis is that Zika virus (ZIKV) transmission hot-spots will geographically overlap with dengue virus (DENV) and chikungunya virus (CHIKV) transmission hot-spots, leading to a plausible scenario favoring the implementation of interventions targeted in such high transmission areas as an efficient method to disrupt city-wide transmission. By linking data regularly collected by public health systems (geo-coded cases with date of onset of symptoms) on the distribution of the three viruses in the cities of Merida (Mexico) and Natal (Brazil) with spatial analytics, we found that ZIKV and CHIKV indeed show strong agreement in their introduction and distribution when compared to historic DENV transmission hot-spots. Such findings led to the consideration by the Pan-American Health Organization of risk mapping within cities as a priority area for future development in the member countries of the Americas, and the organization of meetings and training workshops to support activities moving forward. Our second goal for this project was to use a stochastic DENV simulation model to evaluate the delivery of vector control in space and time. We parameterized the model with data analyzed from Australia, that quantified the effectiveness of targeted indoor residual spraying (TIRS, the application of insecticides indoors focused in areas where mosquitoes rest) to be significant in preventing disease (86-96% effectiveness against DENV). Simulating the deployment of TIRS in the Yucatan provided opportunities to assess the role of sustained vector control both in space and time. When performed at high coverage (75% of all premises), IRS initially reduces DENV transmission by ~90%, leading to a decrease in population-level immunity. Optimal timing for such programs is early during the normal dengue season, ~4 months before the peak transmission season, when annual intervention effectiveness reaches ~70%. Together, our findings support the value of high-quality vector control and pinpoint to larger benefits potentially obtained by optimally deploying high-quality interventions in hot-spot areas, particularly when properly timed with regards to the regular transmission season. Targeted indoor residual spraying is currently listed by the World Health Organization as one of the methods with potential to contain Zika transmission. This project provided training in open access mapping and spatial analysis for 20 scholars and public health practitioners from Latin America and the Caribbean, as well as involved one Emory MPH student and one Mexican PhD student.
Last Modified: 06/23/2017
Modified by: Gonzalo Vazquez Prokopec
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