| NSF Org: |
SES Division of Social and Economic Sciences |
| Recipient: |
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| Initial Amendment Date: | May 9, 2016 |
| Latest Amendment Date: | May 9, 2016 |
| Award Number: | 1638545 |
| Award Instrument: | Standard Grant |
| Program Manager: |
Robert O'Connor
roconnor@nsf.gov (703)292-7263 SES Division of Social and Economic Sciences SBE Directorate for Social, Behavioral and Economic Sciences |
| Start Date: | May 1, 2016 |
| End Date: | April 30, 2018 (Estimated) |
| Total Intended Award Amount: | $199,208.00 |
| Total Awarded Amount to Date: | $199,208.00 |
| Funds Obligated to Date: |
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| History of Investigator: |
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| Recipient Sponsored Research Office: |
70 WASHINGTON SQ S NEW YORK NY US 10012-1019 (212)998-2121 |
| Sponsor Congressional District: |
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| Primary Place of Performance: |
41 East 11th Street, Room 733 New York NY US 10003-4602 |
| Primary Place of
Performance Congressional District: |
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| Unique Entity Identifier (UEI): |
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| Parent UEI: |
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| NSF Program(s): |
Decision, Risk & Mgmt Sci, Cross-BIO Activities |
| Primary Program Source: |
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| Program Reference Code(s): |
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| Program Element Code(s): |
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| Award Agency Code: | 4900 |
| Fund Agency Code: | 4900 |
| Assistance Listing Number(s): | 47.075 |
ABSTRACT
Threats are all around us: from the mundane, such as auto accidents, to the existential, such as global pandemics or nuclear war. How we perceive and manage these threats is related to a number of factors including how "real" the threat feels (its risk salience), our confidence in the sources of information alerting us to the threat and its potential consequences, our faith in the effectiveness of an intervention and in our ability to employ it, and our reliance upon psychological leanings that propel us to being risk-tolerant or risk-averse. The newly emerging Zika virus is a window into many of these facets, and a critically-important opportunity for those engaged in public health risk communication. This research examines how social, scientific, and policy cues influence the U.S. public's appreciation of the risk of Zika virus over time, as well as the public's receptivity to clinical, environmental, and behavioral interventions. By collecting a series of four cross-sectional population surveys over the course of a year, this research illustrates how risk salience evolves, and the extent to which it may be influenced by specific communication and information channels. Analyses reveal how social, scientific, and policy discourse contribute to public understandings of risk and further our understandings of communication strategies. Understanding how messaging changes with evolving scientific knowledge improves risk communication for future threats. These findings contribute to the literature of risk communication, which is often comprised of retrospective analyses of messages, rather than prospective studies of messaging in times of uncertainty. It also helps develop more refined and effective risk communication strategies when populations are faced with the threat of a novel pathogen. Overall, this research contributes to several disciplinary perspectives, notably those of risk assessment, hazard-related decision making, and public health risk communication.
The rising attention to the Zika virus offers an opportunity to examine how risk salience evolves in real-time as the threat approaches. Currently, there are no vaccines or therapies for the Zika viral infection, and there is still limited scientific understanding of the virus itself, the vectors, the disease pathogenesis, or even the epidemiology. The opportunity to measure and chart the U.S. public's perception of this threat - and how it is influenced by social, scientific, and policy cues - is time-bound, as the geographic exposure to the virus expands over time, and the data are ephemeral. This research examines how social, scientific, and policy cues influence the US public's perception of the risk over time, as well as the public's receptivity to clinical, environmental, and behavioral interventions. The specific aims of the research are to: (1) chart the trajectory of risk salience as exposure and certainty of the Zika virus increases; (2) identify and analyze the impact of social, scientific, and policy cues and discourse on risk salience; and (3) describe and analyze group differences in the evolving attitudes related to risk perception, as well as receptivity to policy, programmatic, and clinical interventions. Two data sets are developed to investigate these research aims. The first is a repeated cross-sectional national phone survey with an oversample of women of child-bearing age in the US Southern Tier (selected as a sub-population of particular vulnerability), totaling 1,200 respondents. These data are collected quarterly over a year-long period. In parallel with the primary data, a second data set quantifies the number and type of social, scientific, and policy cues observed in sentinel media sources during the time period immediately preceding the survey work. The research team merges these media data with the primary data and tests for their association with respondents? risk salience. The findings contribute to the overall literature of risk communication, which is often comprised of retrospective analyses of messages, rather than prospective studies of messaging in times of uncertainty. It is possible that messaging will change over time as the number of Zika cases increases in the US, as the number of microcephalic infant births increase, and as dramatic stories are reported with greater frequency in the press. Demonstrating how this messaging changes with evolving scientific knowledge improves risk communication for future threats.
PUBLICATIONS PRODUCED AS A RESULT OF THIS RESEARCH
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PROJECT OUTCOMES REPORT
Disclaimer
This Project Outcomes Report for the General Public is displayed verbatim as submitted by the Principal Investigator (PI) for this award. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this Report are those of the PI and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation; NSF has not approved or endorsed its content.
Project Outcomes Report
The emergence of the Zika virus offered an opportunity to examine how the US population perceived the risk of a novel threat in real-time as a hazard approached. At the time Zika became a global public health concern in early 2016 there were no vaccines or therapies for the Zika viral infection, and there was limited scientific understanding of the virus itself, the vectors, the disease pathogenesis, or even the epidemiology. Based upon reports from Brazil and other Central American countries, the virus was implicated in the development of microcephaly, a severe birth defect, as well as other neurological effects in children and adults. Early evidence suggested that the likeliest vectors were Aedes Aegypti mosquitos as well as sexual transmission of the virus. The combination of these two distinct viral vectors made Zika highly unusual and potentially highly transmissible.
This project explored US public perception of this threat and how public preferences for different interventions were influenced by family, friends, healthcare providers, and the media. The specific aims of the research were to: (1) chart the trajectory of risk salience as exposure and certainty of the Zika virus increased; (2) identify and analyze the impact of social, scientific, and policy cues and discourse on risk salience; and (3) describe and analyze group differences in the evolving attitudes related to risk perception, as well as receptivity to policy, programmatic, and clinical interventions. The interventions asked about included environmental actions, such as aerial spraying or use of larvacides; behavioral actions such as delaying pregnancy, changing travel plans, or using birth control measures; and clinical actions such as pregnancy termination.
The project used a repeat cross-sectional study design to investigate these research aims. Data were collected using a representative national phone survey with an oversampling of women of child-bearing age, who were envisioned to be particularly vulnerable to the virus’s effects. Data were collected at four time points: in spring 2016, summer 2016, autumn 2016, and in autumn 2017. Approximately 1,200 US residents were surveyed each time, for a total of 4,926 participants overall. Subjects were randomly selected from lists of landlines and cell phones and weighted to represent the US population.
Among the key findings from this project on the relative role of information, risk perception, and knowledge in promoting the public’s preferences for specific interventions were:
- The US population was generally most receptive to the use of aerial spraying to reduce the mosquito population and least receptive to individual behavioral changes such as using larvacide on their property or delaying pregnancy. Much of this was contingent upon the extent to which people were confident in government;
- The perceived risk for Zika virus was highest during the first point of data collection, at the peak of uncertainty, and decreased as time progressed and it became increasingly evident that widespread Zika virus transmission in the continental US was unlikely;
- Different sources of information were associated with different aspects of public understanding of the virus. Those who relied on government sources of information were most informed about Zika, while those who relied on their social networks had the highest levels of perceived risk.
These findings can help inform public health risk communicators about the best ways of communicating with the public about emerging threats. For example, public health communicators can target distinct information channels to highlight different aspects of an evolving viral threat. Certain channels, such as broadcast media, may prove to be the best “social amplification stations” to promote knowledge of an emerging threat like Zika, whereas information channels such as social media, physicians, and social networks may be best positioned to promote a better appreciation of population risk. Moreover, market segmentation approaches can be employed to secure public endorsement of environmental interventions that may be regarded as controversial, such as aerial spraying, introduction of genetically-modified mosquito strains, or targeted larvacide deployment.
Last Modified: 09/18/2018
Modified by: David M Abramson
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