Award Abstract # 1534544
Hazards SEES: Understanding Cross-Scale Interactions of Trade and Food Policy to Improve Resilience to Drought Risk

NSF Org: SES
Division of Social and Economic Sciences
Recipient: THE TRUSTEES OF PRINCETON UNIVERSITY
Initial Amendment Date: August 5, 2015
Latest Amendment Date: December 19, 2016
Award Number: 1534544
Award Instrument: Continuing Grant
Program Manager: Robert O'Connor
roconnor@nsf.gov
 (703)292-7263
SES
 Division of Social and Economic Sciences
SBE
 Directorate for Social, Behavioral and Economic Sciences
Start Date: August 15, 2015
End Date: May 31, 2018 (Estimated)
Total Intended Award Amount: $2,519,689.00
Total Awarded Amount to Date: $2,519,689.00
Funds Obligated to Date: FY 2015 = $956,536.00
FY 2016 = $0.00
History of Investigator:
  • Lyndon Estes (Principal Investigator)
  • Kelly Caylor (Co-Principal Investigator)
  • Justin Sheffield (Former Principal Investigator)
  • Lyndon Estes (Former Co-Principal Investigator)
Recipient Sponsored Research Office: Princeton University
1 NASSAU HALL
PRINCETON
NJ  US  08544-2001
(609)258-3090
Sponsor Congressional District: 12
Primary Place of Performance: Princeton University
Princeton
NJ  US  08544-2020
Primary Place of Performance
Congressional District:
12
Unique Entity Identifier (UEI): NJ1YPQXQG7U5
Parent UEI:
NSF Program(s): HDBE-Humans, Disasters, and th,
SEES Hazards
Primary Program Source: 01001516DB NSF RESEARCH & RELATED ACTIVIT
01001617DB NSF RESEARCH & RELATED ACTIVIT
Program Reference Code(s): 4444, 8060
Program Element Code(s): 163800, 808700
Award Agency Code: 4900
Fund Agency Code: 4900
Assistance Listing Number(s): 47.075

ABSTRACT

Food security in regions affected by drought is influenced by a complex set of interactions between hydrological, agricultural, and social systems. Previous models examining the impact of drought on food security have not incorporated food trade and food movements at fine spatial scales, yet these components are critical parts of regional food systems. In sub-Saharan Africa droughts and floods account for approximately 80% of fatalities and 70% of the economic losses that are due to natural hazards. Zambia is particularly vulnerable to droughts, having high levels of malnutrition, poverty, income inequality, exposure to HIV/AIDS and malaria, and low levels of educational attainment. Zambia's agricultural production is rain-fed, which further increases vulnerability in the region. With the extreme vulnerability of the region, Zambia serves as an ideal place to study how the interactions between drought risk, crop production, trade, and policy affect food security. By incorporating the effects of trade and policy into predictive hydrological and agricultural models, this project is improving existing early warning systems for famine which rarely assess the capacity for a region to ameliorate drought via food transfers and trade.

This project's goal is to understand the effect of drought hazards in subsistence agriculture using a novel integrative framework that merges data, models, and knowledge of drought risk and crop production; their interactions with the dynamics of trade-based and aid-based responses; and their effect on household food security and consumption. We are addressing three questions: 1) What are the spatio-temporal scales of drought risk across Zambia and how does risk transfer into agricultural impacts? 2) What is the role of trade and domestic food policy on food security at local to national levels? 3) Can drought impacts be more effectively reduced by integrating an understanding of policy and food transfers into an agricultural drought early warning system? To answer these questions, we are collecting biophysical data to characterize historical droughts and their impacts on regional agriculture; examining household and market level data to characterize food security outcomes, market prices, and food sourcing; using complex network analysis to characterize food trade and flows; assessing market integration associated with price fluctuations and infrastructure to determine economic exposure and resilience at the household, community and district levels; examining how policies at the national scale constrain decisions at the local scale; and developing computational models for high resolution predictions and to explore probabilistic solutions for resource allocation and risk management. This project is the first to create an integrated model of food trade, household consumption and crop production at such fine spatial scales built on an empirical foundation in each dimension.

PUBLICATIONS PRODUCED AS A RESULT OF THIS RESEARCH

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Dang, Q., M. Konar, J.J. Reimer, G. Di Baldassarre, R. Zeng and X. Lin "Dang, Q., M. Konar, J.J. Reimer, G. Di Baldassarre, R. Zeng and X. Lin" Advances in Water Resources , v.89 , 2016 , p.32 10.1016/j.advwatres.2015.12.016
Debats, S.R., Luo, D., Estes, L.D., Fuchs, T.J. & Caylor, K.K. "Debats, S.R., Luo, D., Estes, L.D., Fuchs, T.J. & Caylor, K.K." Remote Sensing of Environment , v.179 , 2016 , p.41 10.1016/j.rse.2016.03.010
Deryugina, T., Konar, M. "Impacts of crop insurance on water withdrawals for irrigation" Advances in Water Resources , 2017 10.1016/j.advwatres.2017.03.013
Estes, L.D., McRitchie, D., Choi, J., Debats, S., Evans, T., Guthe, W., Luo, D., Ragazzo, G., Zempleni, R. & Caylor, K.K. "A platform for crowdsourcing the creation of representative, accurate landcover maps" Environmental Modelling and Software , v.80 , 2016 , p.41 10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.01.011
Estes, L.D., Searchinger, T., Spiegel, M., Tian, D., Sichinga, S., Mwale, M., Kehoe, L., Kuemmerle, T., Berven, A., Chaney, N., Sheffield, J., Wood, E.F. & Caylor, K.K. "Reconciling agriculture, carbon, and biodiversity in a savanna transformation frontier" Reconciling agriculture, carbon, and biodiversity in a savanna transformation frontier , v.371 , 2016 , p.20150316 10.1098/rstb.2015.0316
Konar, M., J.J. Reimer, Z. Hussein and N. Hanasaki "The water footprint of staple crop trade under climate and policy scenarios" The water footprint of staple crop trade under climate and policy scenarios , v.11 , 2016 , p.035006 10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/035006
Konar, M., T.P. Evans, M. Levy, C.A. Scott, T.J. Troy, C.J. Vorosmarty, and M. Sivapalan "Water resources sustainability in a globalizing world: who uses the water?" Hydrological Processes , v.30 , 2016 , p.3330?3336 10.1002/hyp.10843
Marston, L., Konar, M. "Drought impacts to water footprints and virtual water transfers of the Central Valley of California" Water Resources Research , 2017 10.1002/2016WR020251

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