
NSF Org: |
SES Division of Social and Economic Sciences |
Recipient: |
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Initial Amendment Date: | June 7, 2013 |
Latest Amendment Date: | August 4, 2015 |
Award Number: | 1253263 |
Award Instrument: | Continuing Grant |
Program Manager: |
Robert O'Connor
roconnor@nsf.gov (703)292-7263 SES Division of Social and Economic Sciences SBE Directorate for Social, Behavioral and Economic Sciences |
Start Date: | June 15, 2013 |
End Date: | September 30, 2016 (Estimated) |
Total Intended Award Amount: | $451,566.00 |
Total Awarded Amount to Date: | $451,566.00 |
Funds Obligated to Date: |
FY 2014 = $213,346.00 FY 2015 = $7,902.00 |
History of Investigator: |
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Recipient Sponsored Research Office: |
1400 TOWNSEND DR HOUGHTON MI US 49931-1200 (906)487-1885 |
Sponsor Congressional District: |
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Primary Place of Performance: |
1400 Townsend Dr Houghton MI US 49931-1295 |
Primary Place of
Performance Congressional District: |
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Unique Entity Identifier (UEI): |
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Parent UEI: |
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NSF Program(s): | Decision, Risk & Mgmt Sci |
Primary Program Source: |
01001415DB NSF RESEARCH & RELATED ACTIVIT 01001516DB NSF RESEARCH & RELATED ACTIVIT 01001718DB NSF RESEARCH & RELATED ACTIVIT |
Program Reference Code(s): |
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Program Element Code(s): |
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Award Agency Code: | 4900 |
Fund Agency Code: | 4900 |
Assistance Listing Number(s): | 47.075 |
ABSTRACT
A century ago, the writer H.G. Wells predicted that statistical thinking would one day be as necessary for efficient citizenship as the ability to read and write. This day has come. A growing body of research in the decision sciences has shown that statistical numeracy (i.e., the ability to understand probabilistic information) is strongly related to risk literacy (i.e., the ability to accurately interpret and make good decisions based on information about risk). In order to model and improve these crucial decision making skills we need a better understanding of underlying cognitive mechanisms and we need more efficient assessment and training technologies. This project maps cognitive processes and individual differences (e.g., intelligence, numeracy, anxiety, personality) linking numeracy and risk literacy across diverse populations (e.g., varying in ages, cultures, education levels) and wide-ranging decisions (e.g., medical, financial, environmental, political). Psychometric and process-tracing experiments serve as a basis for an integrated cognitive model of risk literacy and its relationship to numeracy. In turn, the project develops new numeracy and risk literacy tests and tutoring tools, improving our ability to predict risk comprehension and to avoid misunderstanding. The risk literacy norms developed in the project help in estimating the generalizability of basic laboratory findings and in informing the design of decision support technologies (e.g., risk communication, intelligent tutors).
Professionals, policy makers, and the public (e.g., for loans, diets, surgeries, investments, safety, energy) all routinely use statistical information about risk to inform their decisions. Related mathematical skills are among the most influential educational factors contributing to economic prosperity in industrialized countries. Unfortunately, many people are not sufficiently numerate or risk literate and so they may not make the most informed decisions. In accord with primary goals of the US public education policy, this project produces new knowledge to improve our understanding of numeracy and the mechanisms. This project supports students and researchers who are committed to theoretically grounded research on risk literacy and its applications, including the creation of free online educational tools for use in high schools, colleges, businesses, hospitals, and by the general public. These and other outreach efforts increase awareness of numeracy and risk literacy, and the biases they inoculate against. These efforts also coordinate worldwide research and widen the impact of www.RiskLiteracy.org, thereby improving access to evidence-based resources for students, scientists, policy makers, and people around the world.
PUBLICATIONS PRODUCED AS A RESULT OF THIS RESEARCH
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