Award Abstract # 1253263
CAREER:Numeracy and Risk Literacy

NSF Org: SES
Division of Social and Economic Sciences
Recipient: MICHIGAN TECHNOLOGICAL UNIVERSITY
Initial Amendment Date: June 7, 2013
Latest Amendment Date: August 4, 2015
Award Number: 1253263
Award Instrument: Continuing Grant
Program Manager: Robert O'Connor
roconnor@nsf.gov
 (703)292-7263
SES
 Division of Social and Economic Sciences
SBE
 Directorate for Social, Behavioral and Economic Sciences
Start Date: June 15, 2013
End Date: September 30, 2016 (Estimated)
Total Intended Award Amount: $451,566.00
Total Awarded Amount to Date: $451,566.00
Funds Obligated to Date: FY 2013 = $49,866.00
FY 2014 = $213,346.00

FY 2015 = $7,902.00
History of Investigator:
  • Edward Cokely (Principal Investigator)
    cokely@ou.edu
Recipient Sponsored Research Office: Michigan Technological University
1400 TOWNSEND DR
HOUGHTON
MI  US  49931-1200
(906)487-1885
Sponsor Congressional District: 01
Primary Place of Performance: Michigan Technological University
1400 Townsend Dr
Houghton
MI  US  49931-1295
Primary Place of Performance
Congressional District:
01
Unique Entity Identifier (UEI): GKMSN3DA6P91
Parent UEI: GKMSN3DA6P91
NSF Program(s): Decision, Risk & Mgmt Sci
Primary Program Source: 01001314DB NSF RESEARCH & RELATED ACTIVIT
01001415DB NSF RESEARCH & RELATED ACTIVIT

01001516DB NSF RESEARCH & RELATED ACTIVIT

01001718DB NSF RESEARCH & RELATED ACTIVIT
Program Reference Code(s): 1045, 9178, 9179, SMET
Program Element Code(s): 132100
Award Agency Code: 4900
Fund Agency Code: 4900
Assistance Listing Number(s): 47.075

ABSTRACT

A century ago, the writer H.G. Wells predicted that statistical thinking would one day be as necessary for efficient citizenship as the ability to read and write. This day has come. A growing body of research in the decision sciences has shown that statistical numeracy (i.e., the ability to understand probabilistic information) is strongly related to risk literacy (i.e., the ability to accurately interpret and make good decisions based on information about risk). In order to model and improve these crucial decision making skills we need a better understanding of underlying cognitive mechanisms and we need more efficient assessment and training technologies. This project maps cognitive processes and individual differences (e.g., intelligence, numeracy, anxiety, personality) linking numeracy and risk literacy across diverse populations (e.g., varying in ages, cultures, education levels) and wide-ranging decisions (e.g., medical, financial, environmental, political). Psychometric and process-tracing experiments serve as a basis for an integrated cognitive model of risk literacy and its relationship to numeracy. In turn, the project develops new numeracy and risk literacy tests and tutoring tools, improving our ability to predict risk comprehension and to avoid misunderstanding. The risk literacy norms developed in the project help in estimating the generalizability of basic laboratory findings and in informing the design of decision support technologies (e.g., risk communication, intelligent tutors).

Professionals, policy makers, and the public (e.g., for loans, diets, surgeries, investments, safety, energy) all routinely use statistical information about risk to inform their decisions. Related mathematical skills are among the most influential educational factors contributing to economic prosperity in industrialized countries. Unfortunately, many people are not sufficiently numerate or risk literate and so they may not make the most informed decisions. In accord with primary goals of the US public education policy, this project produces new knowledge to improve our understanding of numeracy and the mechanisms. This project supports students and researchers who are committed to theoretically grounded research on risk literacy and its applications, including the creation of free online educational tools for use in high schools, colleges, businesses, hospitals, and by the general public. These and other outreach efforts increase awareness of numeracy and risk literacy, and the biases they inoculate against. These efforts also coordinate worldwide research and widen the impact of www.RiskLiteracy.org, thereby improving access to evidence-based resources for students, scientists, policy makers, and people around the world.

PUBLICATIONS PRODUCED AS A RESULT OF THIS RESEARCH

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(Showing: 1 - 10 of 18)
Garcia-Retamero, R. & Cokely, E.T. (accepted). "Brief messages to promote prevention and detection of sexually transmitted diseases." Current HIV Research , 2015
Garcia-Retamero, R., Cokely, E.T., Bruine de Bruin, W. (accepted). "Improving Risk Communication about sexually transmitted diseases: Introduction to the thematic issue." Current HIV Research. , 2015
Garcia-Retamero, R., Cokely, E. T., Ghazal, S., & Joeris, A. "Measuring Graph Literacy without a Test: A Brief Subjective Assessment." Medical Decision Making , 2016
Garcia-Retamero, R., Cokely, E. T., & Hoffrage, U. "Visual aids improve diagnostic inferences and metacognitive judgment calibration." Frontiers in psychology , 2015
Garcia-Retamero, R., Cokely, E. T., Wicki, B., & Joeris, A. "Improving risk literacy in surgeons." Patient education and counseling , 2016
Garcia-Retamero, R., Wicki, B., Cokely, E.T., & Hanson, B "Factors predicting surgeons' preferred and actual roles in interactions with their patients." Health Psychology , 2014
Ghazal, S., Cokely, E.T., & Garcia-Retamero, R. "Predicting biases in very highly educated samples: Numeracy and metacognition." Judgment and Decision Making , v.9 , 2014 , p.15
Okan, Y., Garcia-Retamero, R., Cokely, E.T., & Maldonado, A.. "Improving risk understanding using dynamic icon arrays." Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied. , 2015
Petrova, D., Garcia-Retamero, R., & Cokely, E.T. (accepted). "Understanding harms and benefits of cancer screening: A model of factors that shape informed decision making." Medical Decision Making. , 2015
Petushek, E.J., Cokely, E.T., Ward, P., Durocher, J.J., Wallace, S.J., & Myer, G.D. "Injury Risk Estimation Expertise: Assessing the ACL Injury Risk Estimation Quiz." The American Journal of Sports Medicine. , 2015
?Petushek E.J., Cokely, E.T., Ward, P., & Myer, G. "Injury Risk Estimation Expertise: Cognitive-perceptual mechanisms of ACL-IQ." Journal of Sport and Exercise Psychology. , 2015
(Showing: 1 - 10 of 18)

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