ABSTRACT

The specific objectives of this project are threefold. The first objective is to develop models for assessing the impact of infection and co-infection of multiple strains/species of parasites in multiple host types. The second objective is to analyze the impact of drug treatment (including the age-structure of hosts) on parasite evolution. The final objective is to explore the roles that parasite virulence, reproduction, and drug resistance play in shaping parasite and host populations, and to obtain useful insights into the effects of host life-history and parasite heterogeneity on parasite invasion and persistence. These models are developed to reflect the biological complexity of host-parasite systems and will be analyzed using tools in nonlinear dynamical systems theory. In addition, complementary empirical studies that are designed to test theoretical predictions and provide biologically relevant parameters for the models will be initiated. These studies will provide unique insights into how various factors impact the establishment and spread of disease in natural systems. To achieve the project objectives, mathematicians and biologists will combine their expertise to generate more relevant and applicable models.

Theoretical models are essential to the scientific growth of disciplines such as disease ecology, co-evolution of pathogens and their hosts, and parasite transmission dynamics. Unfortunately, theoretical advances in these disciplines are complicated by the complex interactions of parasites with their hosts. Advances in these areas are further slowed by the limited availability of relevant data. Yet these challenges must be met if we are to develop models that provide insights for public health policy. The goal of this project is to combine mathematics and empirical data to understand complex host-parasite interactions by developing realistic models that more accurately describe population dynamics and evaluate disease control measures. By explicitly linking the models with appropriate experimental work, this research will significantly advance our knowledge and understanding of host-parasite co-evolution and disease epidemiology. The focus on the integration of analytical and empirical studies is to identify the potential for model-based tools to inform field workers and policymakers of the likely ecological and epidemiological consequences of public health decisions.

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