Award Abstract # 0640859
The Grinnell Project: Using a Unique Historical Record to Document Responses of Mammals and Birds to 100 Years of Climate Change

NSF Org: DEB
Division Of Environmental Biology
Recipient: REGENTS OF THE UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, THE
Initial Amendment Date: February 28, 2007
Latest Amendment Date: January 7, 2010
Award Number: 0640859
Award Instrument: Continuing Grant
Program Manager: Saran Twombly
DEB
 Division Of Environmental Biology
BIO
 Directorate for Biological Sciences
Start Date: February 1, 2007
End Date: January 31, 2012 (Estimated)
Total Intended Award Amount: $570,304.00
Total Awarded Amount to Date: $570,304.00
Funds Obligated to Date: FY 2007 = $191,556.00
FY 2008 = $141,602.00

FY 2009 = $145,329.00

FY 2010 = $91,817.00
History of Investigator:
  • Craig Moritz (Principal Investigator)
    craigm@berkeley.edu
  • Steven Beissinger (Co-Principal Investigator)
  • Carla Cicero (Co-Principal Investigator)
  • Chris Conroy (Co-Principal Investigator)
Recipient Sponsored Research Office: University of California-Berkeley
1608 4TH ST STE 201
BERKELEY
CA  US  94710-1749
(510)643-3891
Sponsor Congressional District: 12
Primary Place of Performance: University of California-Berkeley
1608 4TH ST STE 201
BERKELEY
CA  US  94710-1749
Primary Place of Performance
Congressional District:
12
Unique Entity Identifier (UEI): GS3YEVSS12N6
Parent UEI:
NSF Program(s): POP & COMMUNITY ECOL PROG,
Geography and Spatial Sciences
Primary Program Source: app-0107 
01000809DB NSF RESEARCH & RELATED ACTIVIT

01000910DB NSF RESEARCH & RELATED ACTIVIT

01001011DB NSF RESEARCH & RELATED ACTIVIT
Program Reference Code(s): 1182, 9169, 9278, EGCH
Program Element Code(s): 118200, 135200
Award Agency Code: 4900
Fund Agency Code: 4900
Assistance Listing Number(s): 47.074

ABSTRACT

There is intense societal and scientific interest in effects of global warming on species' distributions and diversity. However, because there are so few historical records with the detail necessary to measure multi-decadal responses to past warming, most attention has been on using models to predict future responses. The present study resurveys bird and mammal diversity across 80 high-elevation sites in California for which there is an extensive, museum-based record from the early 20th C. The aims are to (i) measure how changes in climate over the past 100 years have affected species diversity, (ii) test alternative methods for predicting effects of climate change on species' distributions, and (iii) using historically-verified models, predict responses to future climate change.

The project will document species' responses to changing climate in a global biodiversity hotspot. By testing predictive models against the observed changes, the investigators will provide a stronger foundation for forecasting changes over the coming century. Students will be trained in field methods, data management and modeling. The results, to be made available immediately through the Museum's web site, will provide another benchmark to which researchers and public alike can turn to understand changes in species diversity over the coming century.

PUBLICATIONS PRODUCED AS A RESULT OF THIS RESEARCH

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Eastman, LM; Morelli, TL; Rowe, KC; Conroy, CJ; Moritz, C "Size increase in high elevation ground squirrels over the last century" GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY , v.18 , 2012 , p.1499 View record at Web of Science 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02644.
Moritz, C; Patton, JL; Conroy, CJ; Parra, JL; White, GC; Beissinger, SR "Impact of a century of climate change on small-mammal communities in Yosemite National Park, USA" SCIENCE , v.322 , 2008 , p.261 View record at Web of Science 10.1126/science.116342
Parra, J.L. and W. B. Monahan "Variability in 20th century climate change reconstructions and its consequences for predicting geographic responses of California mammals" Global Change Biology , v.14 , 2008 , p.2215 10.1111/gcb.2008.14.issue-10
Rubidge E.M., Monahan W.B., Parra J.L., Cameron S.E. & Brashares J.S. "The role of climate, habitat, and species co-occurrence as drivers of change in small mammal distributions over the past century." Global Change Biology , v.17 , 2011 , p.696
Rubidge, EM; Patton, JL; Lim, M; Burton, AC; Brashares, JS; Moritz, C "Climate-induced range contraction drives genetic erosion in an alpine mammal" NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE , v.2 , 2012 , p.285 View record at Web of Science 10.1038/NCLIMATE141
Tingley, M.W. and S. R. Beissinger "Detecting range shifts from historical species occurrences: new perspectives on old data" Trends in Ecology and Evolution , v.24 , 2009 , p.625 DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2009.05.009
Tingley, M.W., W.B. Monahan, S.R. Beissinger, and C. Moritz "Birds track their Grinnellian niche through a century of climate change" Proceedings of the National Academy of Science , v.106 , 2009 , p.19637 10.1073/pnas.0901562106
Yang, DS; Conroy, CJ; Moritz, C "Contrasting responses of Peromyscus mice of Yosemite National Park to recent climate change" GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY , v.17 , 2011 , p.2559 View record at Web of Science 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02394.

PROJECT OUTCOMES REPORT

Disclaimer

This Project Outcomes Report for the General Public is displayed verbatim as submitted by the Principal Investigator (PI) for this award. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this Report are those of the PI and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation; NSF has not approved or endorsed its content.

In the early 20th C, Joseph Grinnell, the founding Director of the Museum of Vertebrate Zoology (MVZ) at UC Berkeley, had the foresight to establish an extensive record of the distribution of mammals and birds throughout California so that future researchers could understand how environmental change affects this rich and unique biota.  Some 100 years later, teams from the MVZ have revisited the major transects across the mountains of the Sierra Nevada to do just this (Figure 1). Grinnell’s record was unusually rich, backed by not just specimens, but also photographs and field notes with locality descriptions and daily records of field effort and observations or captures. This enabled the modern MVZ team to determine with statistical confidence, how upper and lower range limits of species have changed over a century of environmental change. The goals of the Grinnell Resurvey Project (GRP: mvz.berkeley.edu/Grinnell) were to document change in elevational limits, understand why distributions are changing, and, crucially, to provide another benchmark, of early 21st C distributions, for future researchers.

 

Intellectual benefits:  The GRP resurvey, analyzed using rigorous and conservative statistical methods, revealed considerable change in species limits over the past century. For small mammals, the dominant pattern is upwards shift of lower limits in the higher elevation species, in some cases leading to pronounced range contractions. This is especially notable for the alpine chipmunk (unique to the Sierra Nevada) and Belding’s ground squirrel. Genetic comparisons of historical and modern specimens of the alpine chipmunk also demonstrate increasing population fragmentation and loss of diversity.  Comparisons of observed range changes with local patterns of environmental change suggest that, whereas upwards expansions of some lower elevation species is attributable to vegetation change, contractions of higher species is associated with increasing minimum temperature.  Yet, species’ responses are highly variable.  This heterogeneity was especially notable for birds, for which there were as many shifts down as up.  For birds in particular, it appears that changing precipitation as well as temperature has affected species ranges.  Of interest, there is a trend for lower elevation birds to respond to changed precipitation, whereas higher elevation species are influenced more strongly by temperature. 

 

While the GRP has clearly demonstrated changes in species’ elevational limits over the past century, there is considerable unexplained variation in species’ responses to environmental change. A more mechanistic approach, informed by natural history, is required to predict vulnerability.  Towards that end, ongoing studies are using the modern vs. historic small mammal specimens to detect changes in eco-morphology and diet (via stable isotopes) and, using exome-scale nextgen sequencing, to test for signatures of selection on genes. Despite all this change in species limits, also resulting in substantial change in local community structure, it is important to note that these large protected areas are doing their job – Yosemite NP, for example, has maintained species richness even as species shifted idiosyncratically across the elevation gradient. 

 

Broader benefits:  Perhaps the most enduring result from the GRP is the new collections and data it has generated, again backed by field notes and images and protected for the future in the MVZ. The specimen collection data (primarily small mammals) is all publically accessible via the MVZ on-line database (mvz.berkeley.edu). In associated studies, these resurvey data are being use...

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